The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomManel Kape waited nine years. It took him one right hand.Kape erased a 2017 loss to Kyoji Horiguchi with a third-round knockout at UFC Vegas 119, then asked for Joshua Van. Our model went 9 of 12 on the night, but its one LOCK lost.
The breakdown
Manel Kape brings the loudest flyweight finishing run in the division — KO of Bruno Silva in R3, KO of Asu Almabayev in R3, and KO of Brandon Royval in R1 to close out 2025. Kyoji Horiguchi is the great comeback story: nine years away from the UFC after the 2016 loss to DJ, then a 2025 return that produced a R3 submission of Tagir Ulanbekov and a decision win over Amir Albazi in February. Model has Kape with the slimmest of leans.
LOW tier on Kape is the model saying: this is a coin-flip. Kape's recent KO power and pace stack up against a Horiguchi who looks every bit the same precise, well-rounded fighter who almost beat DJ a decade ago — and who has the technical grappling Kape's last three opponents didn't show. Both come from finisher profiles; one perfect read either way decides this. Genuine live dog on Horiguchi.
- Kape on a 3-KO streak vs Horiguchi on a 2-win comeback run
- 9-year UFC gap for Horiguchi — comeback rust vs comeback freshness
- Horiguchi's grappling-submission path vs Kape's KO power
- Flyweight 5-round main event — pacing + cardio matter
- LOW tier — model treats this honestly as a coin flip, no conviction
The breakdown
Navajo Stirling enters undefeated — 4-0 in the UFC with three decisions (Tokkos, Erslan, Bellato) plus a R2 KO of Bruno Lopes in March. Ion Cutelaba is the veteran with 20 UFC fights and a R1 submission of Oumar Sy in March that reminded everyone the grappling is still there. Model leans Stirling with conviction.
HIGH tier on Stirling is the structural call — the unbeaten prospect at full trajectory against the journeyman whose ledger is uneven. Stirling's path is the technical, pressure-based decision he has run four times; Cutelaba's path is what it usually is: catch him slipping on the feet or in the scramble for the one finishing moment. The model is pricing the trajectory + form delta as material; the live-dog read stays open on Cutelaba's veteran calm + power.
- Stirling 4-0 unbeaten vs Cutelaba's 20-fight UFC ledger
- Stirling's decision pedigree + recent KO of Lopes
- Cutelaba's R1 sub of Oumar Sy in March — grappling still live
- Light heavyweight 3-round — both can finish but Stirling's the pacer
- HIGH tier — model conviction on the form + trajectory gap
The breakdown
Both featherweights walk in trying to halt a slide. Hyder Amil lost back-to-back to Jose Delgado by KO in June and to Mairon Santos's training partner Aaron Emmers in November. Christian Rodriguez has dropped two of three — split-decision losses to Andre Fili and a decision loss to Eduardo Costa. The model marginally leans Rodriguez.
MED tier on Rodriguez is the model reading depth + style — Rodriguez has been competitive in his losses; Amil's been finished. The path for Amil is forward pressure + power; the path for Rodriguez is the technical kickboxing + sub threats that have kept him in close fights. Both fighters need a win badly. Not a tier to over-trust.
- Amil dropped 2 straight (KO to Delgado, dec to Emmers)
- Rodriguez dropped 2 of 3 (split to Fili, dec to Costa)
- Rodriguez's technical kickboxing vs Amil's forward pressure
- Common opponent web — Fili beat Rodriguez + lost to Amil
- MED tier — competitive but not high-conviction
The breakdown
Melsik Baghdasaryan is the striker whose last fight ended in a R1 KO loss to Jean Silva in February 2025 — a hard reminder that the upside path requires perfect range. Murtazali Magomedov makes his UFC debut on short notice and on the back of a clean Eurasian record; the model has the debut LOW-information call.
Model leans Magomedov but the underlying data is debut-thin — predictions assign HIGH on a small-sample read of the prospect profile and Baghdasaryan's hard recent KO loss. Treat the conviction with that caveat. Baghdasaryan's path is the kickboxing that still beats most pure grapplers; Magomedov's path is the wrestling-led pressure that has carried Dagestani fighters through their UFC debuts. Live dog on Baghdasaryan.
- Baghdasaryan KO'd by Jean Silva R1 in Feb 2025 — chin question
- Magomedov UFC debut — limited gold-data sample
- Dagestani wrestling pedigree vs Armenian kickboxing pedigree
- Featherweight 3-round — pace likely to favour the debutant
- HIGH tier model says — caveat: debut sample, treat with care
The breakdown
Vinicius Oliveira is the surging Brazilian bantamweight with a decision win over Cub Swanson, a beat-down of Said Nurmagomedov, a TKO of Kyler Phillips — and one recent submission loss to Bautista. Andre Fili is the 26-fight UFC veteran whose résumé reads like a roadmap of the division — split-decision win over Cub Swanson, split-decision win over Christian Rodriguez, the kind of fighter who has been in every kind of fight there is. Model has Oliveira HIGH.
HIGH on Oliveira is the model reading trajectory + speed + the recent-form gap. Fili's path is exactly what 26 UFC fights gives you: patience, durability, finding the one shot that wears the younger man down across 15 minutes. The model siding decisively with Oliveira is the call that youth + activity beats experience here — and Fili's reputation as a tough out keeps the live-dog read genuinely alive.
- Oliveira's wins over Swanson + Nurmagomedov + Phillips
- Fili's 26 UFC fights — most experienced fighter on the card
- Recent form: Oliveira on a tear; Fili splitting his last few
- Featherweight 3-round — pacing question for both
- HIGH tier — model conviction on form + trajectory delta
