This Saturday Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Golden 1 Center Sacramento , CA United States See tonight's picks →

Data-driven UFC predictions — with a public record.

This Saturday · 2026-08-22
Hernandez vs Rodrigues
Golden 1 Center Sacramento , CA United States · 12 fights
69.02%
every fight we called · 2026 (225-101, n=326)
77.78%
on strong consensus (63-18, n=81)
69.02% is every fight we called in 2026 — 225-101 across 326 picks, all graded in public, toss-ups included. We don't cherry-pick. Not every call is equal: when our models strongly agree we run at 77.78% (63-18); whenever they agree at all, 74.7% (124-42). How our tiers work → · See the receipts →

Tonight's picks

MAIN CARD
★ Main Event · Middleweight -200 / +165
Anthony Hernandez
VS
Gregory Rodrigues
73% 27%
HIGH We predict Anthony Hernandez — 73% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 42%
Goes distance
42%
Median time
10:05
Live · Polymarket
Anthony Hernandez 66%
The model backs Anthony Hernandez at 73%, most likely by DEC (42%), +9.2pp vs the market.
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Heavyweight +132 / -138
Serghei Spivac
VS
Vitor Petrino
41% 59%
LOW We predict Vitor Petrino — 59% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 41%
Goes distance
41%
Median time
9:31
Live · Polymarket
Vitor Petrino 58%
The model backs Vitor Petrino at 59%, most likely by KO/TKO (41%), +2.1pp vs the market.
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Light Heavyweight -382 / +340
Reinier de Ridder
VS
Roman Dolidze
80% 20%
LOCK We predict Reinier de Ridder — 80% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 48%
Goes distance
56%
Median time
12:01
Live · Polymarket
Reinier de Ridder 78%
The model backs Reinier de Ridder at 80%, most likely by DEC (48%), +1.9pp vs the market.
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Lightweight +295 / -333
Marquel Mederos
VS
Mason Jones
34% 66%
HIGH We predict Mason Jones — 66% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 48%
Goes distance
48%
Median time
9:32
Live · Polymarket
Mason Jones 78%
The model backs Mason Jones at 66%, most likely by DEC (48%), -9.6pp vs the market.
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Women's Flyweight -549 / +460
Carli Judice
VS
Jeisla Chaves
66% 34%
HIGH We predict Carli Judice — 66% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 51%
Goes distance
52%
Median time
8:56
Live · Polymarket
Carli Judice 84%
The model backs Carli Judice at 66%, most likely by DEC (51%), -16.9pp vs the market.
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PRELIMS
Featherweight +320 / -361
Jamall Emmers
VS
Lerryan Douglas
36% 64%
HIGH We predict Lerryan Douglas — 64% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 44%
Goes distance
47%
Median time
8:34
Live · Polymarket
Lerryan Douglas 76%
The model backs Lerryan Douglas at 64%, most likely by DEC (44%), -12.4pp vs the market.
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Heavyweight +105 / -124
Kennedy Nzechukwu
VS
Shamil Gaziev
55% 45%
LOW We predict Kennedy Nzechukwu — 55% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 49%
Goes distance
29%
Median time
12:20
Live · Polymarket
Kennedy Nzechukwu 46%
The model backs Kennedy Nzechukwu at 55%, most likely by KO/TKO (49%), +8.3pp vs the market.
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Lightweight -110 / -103
Chris Padilla
VS
Nasrat Haqparast
53% 47%
TOSS-UP We predict Chris Padilla — 53% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 62%
Goes distance
50%
Median time
10:28
Live · Polymarket
Chris Padilla 54%
The model backs Chris Padilla at 53%, most likely by DEC (62%), +2.3pp vs the market.
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Featherweight -791 / +850
Marcio Barbosa
VS
Ryan Kuse
68% 32%
HIGH We predict Marcio Barbosa — 68% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 38%
Goes distance
26%
Median time
6:15
Live · Polymarket
Marcio Barbosa 88%
The model backs Marcio Barbosa at 68%, most likely by KO/TKO (38%), -21.5pp vs the market.
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Lightweight -163 / +152
Gauge Young
VS
Stan Dorsainvil
53% 47%
TOSS-UP We predict Gauge Young — 53% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 56%
Goes distance
57%
Median time
10:19
Live · Polymarket
Gauge Young 62%
The model backs Gauge Young at 53%, most likely by DEC (56%), -7.5pp vs the market.
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Middleweight -172 / +155
Jackson McVey
VS
Wes Schultz
52% 48%
TOSS-UP We predict Jackson McVey — 52% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 40%
Goes distance
35%
Median time
7:49
Live · Polymarket
Jackson McVey 62%
The model backs Jackson McVey at 52%, most likely by DEC (40%), -9.4pp vs the market.
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Women's Strawweight +700 / -791
Elise Reed
VS
Shanelle Dyer
21% 79%
LOCK We predict Shanelle Dyer — 79% confident live · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 47%
Goes distance
59%
Median time
9:58
Live · Polymarket
Shanelle Dyer 88%
The model backs Shanelle Dyer at 79%, most likely by DEC (47%), -9.0pp vs the market.
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Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman — no prediction shown. No sportsbook has priced this bout, so there is no market voice. We do not publish a prediction built on placeholder odds.

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