The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomSong Yadong Didn't Just Win at Home — He Finished a Former ChampionA second-round submission caps a homecoming statement, while the crowd watched two of its favorites get upset on the way there.
The breakdown
Song Yadong fights at home in Macau for the first time since 2018, ranked #5 bantamweight, looking to bounce back from a January decision loss to Sean O'Malley that followed a signature win over Cejudo. At 28, the youngest of the headliners and one of the division's better volume strikers. Deiveson Figueiredo is the former two-time flyweight champion, now 38, 2-3 in his last five at bantamweight and arriving on the harder road — most recent loss was a UD to Umar Nurmagomedov on the same January card Song lost on.
The model has Song HIGH at home, but it's not a LOCK — Figueiredo's nine career submission wins keep a finishing path live and 38-year-old veterans don't get many more title-line chances. Most likely path on the model's read is decision; the upside path is Song's volume cracking the older man's chin in the championship rounds.
- Both fighters off losses at UFC 324; identical 126-day layoffs
- Top-10 implications — title conversation stakes for the winner
- Figueiredo's recent skid is against wrestling-heavy opponents; Song's wrestling is the question
- 5 rounds — cardio + pacing carry weight against the 38-year-old
- Home crowd matters in a fight this close on paper
The breakdown
Zhang Mingyang co-headlines as the second China-based homecoming on the card — first-round KOs of Brendson Ribeiro and Ozzy Diaz, then a stunning R1 stoppage of veteran Anthony Smith, before running into Johnny Walker who handed him a R2 TKO in August 2025. Alonzo Menifield is the American KO artist in his own right, a long-tenured UFC light-heavyweight. Two heavy hitters who both prefer to end nights early.
Zhang HIGH from the model is straightforward — younger fighter, fresher trajectory, home crowd, and the matchup style screams highlight finish. Model's clearest read is KO/TKO. The Walker loss is the one note of caution — Zhang's chin has been tested and cracked once already at this level.
- Most likely highlight-reel finish on the card
- Both have R1 KO power — first exchange usually tells the story
- Zhang's chin was tested vs Walker — recovery question
- Menifield's path is grit + grappling; harder to execute vs a southpaw KO artist
- China-based co-main alongside Song's main event — two homecoming nights on the same card
The breakdown
Sergei Pavlovich is the former UFC interim heavyweight title challenger whose only loss at the top of the division was to Tom Aspinall. He's rebuilt in 2025 with decision wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Waldo Cortes Acosta — notable for a fighter whose calling card was always first-round power. Tallison Teixeira is 2-1 in the UFC: KO over Tafa, first-round KO loss to Lewis, and most importantly a UD over Tai Tuivasa in January, proving he can survive the danger rounds.
The classic heavyweight question this card poses: can the younger man weather round one. Pavlovich went the distance twice in 2025, but his finishing threat in the opening five minutes is still the most likely script. If Teixeira gets past it the way he did with Tuivasa, the read flips — this is a MED tier for that reason, not a LOCK.
- Pavlovich's last two wins came by decision — he'll go rounds if the finish doesn't come
- Teixeira's UD over Tuivasa shows he can survive past R1 — the key variable
- First-round volatility either way on heavyweight
- Pavlovich -400 reflects résumé asymmetry more than a finished-in-R1 read
- Co-main on most cards; here it's the featured HW bout on main card
The breakdown
Jake Matthews is the Australian welterweight on a quiet rebuild — durable, technical, the kind of fighter who wears opponents down without highlight reels. Carlston Harris is the Guyanese veteran with a finishing résumé that doesn't show up consistently against tougher matchmaking. This was originally a different bout — Salikhov was the announced opponent before the card moved.
Matthews HIGH from the model is reasonable — better recent form, better technical baseline, and Harris's path requires landing something heavy early. Model leans decision; the path to a Harris upset goes through the first half of round one.
- Matthews's durability + volume profile fits a 3-round decision
- Harris's finishing chance lives in the first half of round one
- Late opponent swap — Harris in for Salikhov; preparation impact unknown
- Style: technical volume vs heavy single-shot threat
- Welterweight 3-round — pacing rewards Matthews
The breakdown
Kai Asakura drops back to bantamweight after going 0-2 at flyweight in the UFC — sub losses to Pantoja in a UFC 310 title shot, then to Tim Elliott at UFC 319 in August 2025. He returns to 135, his pre-UFC weight class, with a former Rizin championship pedigree. Cameron Smotherman comes in cold: his scheduled UFC 324 bout fell through at weigh-ins, his last completed fight was a June 2025 decision loss to Ricky Simon.
Model has it as a TOSS-UP and that read is right — Asakura's striking pedigree is real but his UFC body of work is two submission losses, and Smotherman is the kind of grappling-leaning opponent that's been giving him trouble. The weight class change is the wildcard the model can't fully price.
- Asakura returning to natural bantamweight — pre-UFC strength
- Two submission losses in his UFC tenure — same threat profile from Smotherman
- Smotherman's nine-month layoff post-cancelled UFC 324 bout is a real factor
- Striking pedigree vs grappling pressure — classic style asymmetry
- Model can't fully price the weight-class jump — TOSS-UP captures that uncertainty honestly
The breakdown
Alex Perez is the long-tenured American flyweight contender, a former title challenger (lost to Figueiredo for the strap in 2020) who's been on the road back since. Sumudaerji is the Tibetan flyweight on a UFC win streak after a rough start — better Elo trajectory, younger man, and the matchup price reflects that.
Model has Sumudaerji as a TOSS-UP edge — close to a coin flip, but the trajectory is on the Chinese fighter's side. Perez's veteran toolkit is the swing factor; if he can pull a sub or a controlling decision, the model gets it wrong tonight.
- Sumudaerji's recent UFC trajectory better than Perez's
- Perez's title-challenger ceiling vs Sumudaerji's home-soil floor
- Flyweight 3-round — finishes scarce on paper
- Sumudaerji's home crowd bump — second night of China-based fighters with home edge
- TOSS-UP from the model — don't read too much into the side
The breakdown
Luis Felipe Dias is the Brazilian newcomer, Yi Sak Lee the Korean. Two prospects with limited UFC bodies of work — the kind of fight where the model has thinner historical signal and the LOW tier honestly reflects that uncertainty. The most likely outcome on the model's read is decision.
LOW tier means: yes the model has a side, but don't read it as conviction. Dias gets a slight nod on the model's grappling-adjacency profile; Lee's striking has shown well in regional. Live underdog territory either way.
- Both fighters early in their UFC tenure — thin historical signal
- LOW tier = side exists, conviction doesn't
- Decision is the most likely path
- Either fighter can be the live dog if you read style differently
- Prelim positioning — under-the-radar fight all card
The breakdown
Ding Meng is the Chinese welterweight on home soil. Jose Henrique is the Brazilian veteran with a heavier finishing résumé and a higher base Elo. A 'closer line' fight per News's briefing — close to 50/50 on the market, and exactly where the model and the books are most likely to disagree.
Model picks Henrique at MED tier — the experienced veteran with the better grappling profile. Ding's path is volume on the feet and a home-crowd boost; Henrique's path is to drag the fight where his higher Elo says it should go.
- Closer market line — single-pp territory on the books
- Henrique's grappling profile is the model's read
- Ding's home crowd as a tiebreaker on a close fight
- Welterweight 3-round — pacing-driven
- Model's confidence is MED — appropriate honesty on a near coin-flip
The breakdown
Aoriqileng is the Inner Mongolian bantamweight on home soil — a tough out, durable, used to fighting under home pressure. Cody Haddon is the American with the higher Elo and the model's pick. Another close fight on the books.
Model has Haddon at MED — neither fighter has the clear runaway statistical profile, but Haddon's higher Elo and better recent form get the nod. Aoriqileng's home-crowd factor is real but model doesn't price crowd noise.
- Aoriqileng on home soil — third home-crowd narrative on the card
- Haddon's Elo edge is the model's primary read
- Bantamweight 3-round — finishes possible either way
- Recent form leans Haddon
- MED tier reflects honest uncertainty
The breakdown
Rei Tsuruya is the Japanese flyweight prospect with rising buzz and a higher model rating. Luis Gurule is the American on a difficult UFC run. This bout was originally Tsuruya vs Aguilar before the card moved — Gurule stepped in as the corrected opponent per News's update this morning.
Tsuruya HIGH is one of the cleaner reads on the card — better trajectory, better recent form, better stylistic match against Gurule's wrestling-leaning game. Model expects a finish path live; KO/TKO is the most likely method.
- Late opponent swap — Gurule in for Aguilar; preparation question
- Tsuruya's prospect trajectory is the model's primary read
- Flyweight finishes are scarcer than the method profile suggests — caveat the KO read
- Gurule's path requires landing something heavy or a sub scramble
The breakdown
Xiong Jingnan makes her UFC debut against Angela Hill — the former ONE strawweight champion with seven title defenses before that promotion folded the division. Hill is the long-tenured UFC strawweight veteran coming off back-to-back decision losses in 2025. The market has Xiong at a meaningful favorite for a debut.
LOW tier with Xiong as the pick reflects an honest read — debut uncertainty IS real, but Xiong's ONE pedigree and Hill's recent form make the side defensible even when conviction is low. Decision is the most likely path; Xiong wins it on the feet if she lands.
- Xiong's ONE résumé is the model's primary positive read
- Hill on a 2-fight decision skid in 2025
- Debut uncertainty drags model conviction to LOW
- Strawweight 3-round — strike-heavy profile
- Notable cross-promotion narrative — first-time UFC visitor
The breakdown
Rodrigo Vera is the Spanish prospect making his UFC debut; Zhu Kangjie is the Chinese fighter with a fuller UFC body of work. Originally Vera vs Taveras before the matchmaking shifted. Coin-flip territory on the model's read.
TOSS-UP says it honestly — neither fighter has the runaway profile, debut uncertainty on Vera's side, home-soil narrative on Zhu's. Model's pick edges Vera but the margin is thin; live dog either way.
- Vera UFC debut — model defaults to a coin-flip baseline on unknowns
- Zhu's UFC tenure provides the more reliable historical signal
- Home-soil narrative on Zhu's side
- TOSS-UP — don't read the side as conviction
- Bantamweight 3-round — anything can happen profile
The breakdown
Jaqueline Amorim is the Brazilian flyweight on a quiet UFC run; Loma Lookboonmee is the Thai veteran with the Muay Thai pedigree. Opener bout on the prelims — pure live-dog matchup with no clear runaway favorite.
TOSS-UP with Amorim as the pick — model leans on the grappling profile and recent form, but the margin is razor thin. Lookboonmee's striking is the path to an upset; Amorim's path is taking it to the ground.
- Lookboonmee's Muay Thai is the model's biggest blind spot here
- Amorim's grappling profile = the model's primary read
- TOSS-UP — coin-flip territory
- Opener on the prelims — under-the-radar all night
- Flyweight 3-round — pacing-driven decision profile most likely