The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomAcosta drops Lewis, and our five flagged picks all landA clean 5-for-5 on LOCK and HIGH picks carried an 8-of-11 night on the Acosta-Lewis card. Here is the card grade, the headliner call, and where the model stood.
The breakdown
Pimblett enters with a perfect 7-0 UFC record and a 7-fight win streak, but faces a massive step up in Gaethje — a former interim champion with elite power and durability. Gaethje's 322-day layoff and age (37) are legitimate concerns, but his Elo (1667) still edges Pimblett's (1658), and he has proven himself against the division's elite. The model favours Pimblett at 67.9%, largely driven by momentum and activity advantage.
- Gaethje on 322-day layoff — ring rust concern
- Pimblett 7-0 UFC, 7-fight win streak — elite momentum
- Model picks Pimblett at 67.9% but market has him at 66.2% — minimal edge (+1.7pp)
- Gaethje 66.7% KO rate vs Pimblett 28.6% — power differential
- Both orthodox, similar height — Pimblett has 3-inch reach advantage
The breakdown
O'Malley comes in on a 2-fight losing streak after losing the bantamweight title, but his reach advantage (5 inches) and switch-stance striking make him dangerous at range. Yadong has a higher Elo (1666 vs 1658) and is younger at 28, but is coming off a 336-day layoff himself. The model sees this as a LOW confidence pick at 58.8% for O'Malley with the market overpricing him at 61.9%.
- O'Malley on 2-fight losing streak — former champion in decline?
- Yadong higher Elo (1666 vs 1658) and 3 years younger
- O'Malley 5-inch reach advantage — key at BW
- Both coming off long layoffs (231 and 336 days)
The breakdown
Acosta brings a 2-fight win streak and recent activity (63-day layoff) against the ageing Lewis who has been out 196 days. Lewis at 40 has incredible KO power (80% KO rate, 16 KO wins) but his chin and cardio have declined. The model strongly favours Acosta at 73% with HIGH confidence, though the market already prices him as a -252 favourite — leaving only +1.4pp edge.
- Lewis is 40 years old — significant age-related decline
- Lewis 80% KO rate but has been KO'd in recent fights
- Acosta active with only 63-day layoff vs Lewis 196 days
- Model 73% vs market 71.6% — small +1.4pp edge
- KO/TKO most likely method at 51.3%
The breakdown
Silva is undefeated at 7-0 with a 7-fight win streak and the model gives her HIGH confidence at 71.5%. However, the market has her even higher at 77.3%, meaning the edge is actually negative (-5.9pp). Namajunas is the former strawweight champion with vastly more experience (18 fights vs 7), but at 33 and moving up to flyweight, she may be past her prime. Decision is overwhelmingly favoured at 76%.
- Silva undefeated 7-0, 7-fight win streak
- Namajunas former 2x SW champion — elite experience
- Market overprices Silva at 77.3% vs model 71.5%
- Decision 76% — very unlikely to be finished
The breakdown
Allen returns after an enormous 546-day layoff — a significant ring rust concern. His Elo (1677) is far superior to Silva's (1598), reflecting his established top-10 pedigree. Silva has 80% KO rate but is coming off a loss and has only 6 UFC fights.
- Allen on massive 546-day layoff — severe ring rust risk
- Allen Elo 1677 vs Silva Elo 1598 — 79-point gap favours Allen
- Silva 80% KO rate but coming off a loss
- Model 54.6% Silva vs market 66.2% — huge 11.6pp gap
The breakdown
Nurmagomedov is the model's highest-confidence pick on the card at 82.7% (LOCK). His dominant wrestling and chain grappling make him an overwhelming favourite against the 38-year-old Figueiredo. However, the market prices Nurmagomedov even higher at 90% (-1667), leaving negative edge.
- LOCK tier confidence — 82.7% model probability
- Market overprices Nurmagomedov at 90% vs model 82.7%
- Decision 55.8% most likely — Nurmagomedov grinds
- Catchweight 138.5 lbs — someone missed weight
The breakdown
Gautier is just 23 years old with a perfect 3-0 record and 100% KO finish rate. At 6'4" with an 81-inch reach, he has significant physical advantages. The model gives him HIGH confidence at 79.7%, though the market prices him even higher at 86.3% (-909). Pulyaev at 1-1 with a lower Elo (1501 vs 1564) is a significant step down in competition.
- Gautier 3-0, 100% KO rate — devastating finisher at 23
- Gautier 81-inch reach vs Pulyaev 78-inch
- Market at 86.3% overprices Gautier vs model 79.7%
- Both fighters very limited UFC sample size
The breakdown
Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak and has a slight Elo edge (1573 vs 1561), but the model sees this as a genuine TOSS-UP at just 52.5%. Krylov is on a 2-fight losing streak and has been out 182 days, but his experience advantage (20 fights vs 11) could prove decisive. The market prices Bukauskas at 59.5% — significantly higher than the model's 52.5%.
- Bukauskas 4-fight win streak vs Krylov 2-fight skid
- Model 52.5% Bukauskas vs market 59.5% — 7pp gap
- KO/TKO most likely method at 41.3%
- Krylov vastly more experienced (20 fights vs 11)
The breakdown
Johnson has a higher Elo (1552 vs 1537) and a recent win streak, while Perez enters on a brutal 2-fight losing skid with a form line of LLWLL. Johnson's 5-inch reach advantage at flyweight is enormous.
- Perez on 2-fight losing streak, form: LLWLL
- Johnson 5-inch reach advantage at flyweight
- Market overprices Johnson at 63.3% vs model 56.7%
- Catchweight 128.5 lbs — someone missed weight
The breakdown
Both fighters are 1-0 in the UFC, making this a near-coinflip. Hokit has a 6-year age advantage (28 vs 34) and won his debut by KO, while Freeman won by decision. They share identical Elos (1525) and heights. The model slightly favours Hokit at 67.8% (MED) but the market already prices him as a -238 favourite — minimal edge at just +0.8pp.
- Both 1-0 in UFC — extremely limited sample
- Hokit 6 years younger (28 vs 34)
- Freeman 4-inch reach advantage (77 vs 73)
- Hokit KO debut vs Freeman decision debut
- Minimal +0.8pp edge over market
The breakdown
Miller is making his UFC debut at just 25 years old and the market heavily favours him at -400 (75.7%). The model agrees at 76.0% (HIGH confidence), though the edge is razor-thin at +0.3pp. Fugitt at 37 is on a losing streak with a form line of LWLWL and a low Elo of 1481. This looks like a showcase fight for the debuting Miller.
- Miller UFC debut — no UFC data, model relies on odds proxy
- Fugitt 37 years old, 2-3 record, on a loss
- 12-year age gap favours Miller (25 vs 37)
- Model 76.0% aligns with market 75.7% — near-zero edge
- KO/TKO 38% most likely but true three-way method split