The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomReyes flips a coin-flip headliner, and our model nails it anywayJavier Reyes ran against the read in the UFC Fight Night main event and won by first-round KO. Our model had him at 31% and still picked him, went 5 for 5 on its flagged calls, and graded 11 of 13 on the night.
The breakdown
Brandon Moreno is a former UFC flyweight champion and one of the most beloved fighters in Mexico. He captured the title from Deiveson Figueiredo in their epic trilogy. Known for his slick boxing and relentless pace. Coming off a loss, his recent form reads LLWWL. 72.7% of his wins come by decision. Lone'er Kavanagh is a young prospect from Ireland, 2-1 in the UFC with both wins by decision. Coming off a loss but only 26 years old with room to grow.
Moreno is the far more experienced fighter with championship pedigree, but his recent form is inconsistent (LLWWL). Kavanagh is young and decision-oriented but faces a massive step up. The model sees Moreno at 62.5% but the market prices him higher at 67.0%, suggesting the line may be inflated by hometown support in Mexico City.
- Moreno former UFC flyweight champion
- Moreno fighting at home in Mexico City
- Moreno inconsistent form LLWWL
- Kavanagh young at 26, only 3 UFC fights
- Decision heavily favoured at 64%
The breakdown
Marlon "Chito" Vera is a veteran bantamweight known for his devastating striking and iron chin. 7 KO wins in the UFC. However, he's on a brutal 3-fight losing streak (LWLLL form). Once a title contender, now fighting to stay relevant. David Martinez is 2-0 in the UFC with a KO and a decision win. Young at 27, rising prospect with finishing ability.
Chito Vera's decline is real — 3 straight losses. Martinez is 2-0 and rising. The model has this dead even with the market at 69.8% for Martinez. No edge either way. Decision 58.5% favoured but Vera's KO power (46.7% finish rate) keeps the fight interesting.
- Vera on 3-fight losing streak
- Martinez 2-0 and rising
- Vera's power keeps him dangerous despite skid
- Model matches market exactly at ~70% Martinez
- Decision 58.5% most likely method
The breakdown
Daniel Zellhuber is a young Mexican lightweight who started 3-0 in the UFC but has dropped his last 2 fights. Tall at 6'1" with a 77" reach, he's a switch-stance striker. King Green is a veteran journeyman at 39 years old with a 14-12 record. 78.6% of his wins come by decision. He's experienced but on a rollercoaster form (LWLLW).
The market has Zellhuber at a massive -500 favourite but the model only gives him 65.2% — a 14pp gap. This is one of the biggest market disagreements on the card. King Green at +360 with the model at 34.8% vs market 20.7% is an enormous +14.2pp underdog edge. Zellhuber's 2-fight skid and Green's veteran savvy make this far closer than the line suggests.
- Massive 14pp gap between model and market
- Zellhuber on 2-fight losing streak
- Green veteran at 39 but experienced
- Decision 58.4% favoured
The breakdown
Edgar Chairez is 2-2 in the UFC with both wins by decision. Alternating wins and losses (LWLW form). 30 years old fighting at home in Mexico. Felipe Bunes is 1-2 with his only win also by decision. 36 years old and on a losing streak. Both fighters are very decision-oriented.
Chairez is the pick at 64.3% but the market prices him higher at 67.0%. Bunes at +188 has a small +2.7pp edge. Decision 49% is the top method with KO (26%) and SUB (25%) also live. A grinding flyweight bout expected to go to the scorecards.
- Chairez 2-2, alternating W/L
- Bunes 1-2, on a losing streak
- Both decision-heavy fighters
- Flyweight pace likely goes to decision
The breakdown
Imanol Rodriguez is making his UFC debut. Only 26 years old, fighting at home in Mexico City. No UFC data available. Kevin Borjas is 1-3 in the UFC with his only win by decision. On a losing streak and struggling at the UFC level.
Rodriguez is a big favourite at -417 despite having no UFC record. The model agrees at 72.9% but sees the market slightly inflating him (76.3%). Borjas at +300 has a small +3.5pp edge. Decision 47% leaning but KO (27.2%) and SUB (26.1%) both live.
- Rodriguez UFC debut, no data
- Borjas 1-3 struggling at UFC level
- Model agrees with market direction
- Three-way method split — anything can happen
- Rodriguez hometown advantage
The breakdown
Santiago Luna is just 21 years old and 1-0 in the UFC with a KO win in his debut. Young, explosive, with a 74" reach for bantamweight. Angel Pacheco is 34 and 0-1 in the UFC, coming off a loss with a massive 700-day layoff. The age and momentum gap is enormous.
Luna is a LOCK pick at 84.5% with +5.6pp edge over the market. At 21, he's one of the youngest fighters on the roster and already has a KO win. Pacheco is 34 with a 700-day layoff and an 0-1 record. Everything points to Luna.
- Luna 21 years old, explosive KO debut
- Pacheco 34 with 700-day layoff
- Pacheco 0-1, Luna 1-0
- KO 42% and DEC 42% both equally likely
- Model 84.5% vs market 78.8% = strong edge
The breakdown
Ryan Gandra is making his UFC debut at 30 years old. No UFC data available. Jose Daniel Medina is 0-3 in the UFC and on a 3-fight losing streak. He hasn't won a fight in the octagon and is on the verge of being cut.
Gandra is a LOCK at 81.4% against the winless Medina. Even with zero UFC data, the model gives him the highest baseline probability against a fighter who is 0-3. KO/TKO at 40% is the top method. Under 2.5 rounds at 68% suggests an early finish.
- Gandra UFC debut, unknown quantity
- Medina 0-3, winless in UFC
- LOCK confidence despite debut
- KO/TKO 40% most likely method
- Under 2.5 rounds at 68%
- Medina on 3-fight losing streak
The breakdown
Ailin Perez is on a remarkable 5-fight UFC win streak — all by decision. A switch-stance fighter from Argentina who grinds out victories. 100% decision rate. Macy Chiasson is a tall bantamweight at 5'11" with 72" reach. 8-5 record but on a 2-fight losing streak. 37.5% KO rate shows she has power.
Perez is on a 5-fight win streak (all decisions) while Chiasson is on a 2-fight skid. Model gives Perez 61.8% with +2.8pp edge over the market. Decision 66% is overwhelmingly favoured given Perez's style. A grinding, technical fight expected.
- Perez 5-fight win streak
- Chiasson 2-fight losing streak
- Perez 100% decision rate
- Chiasson's height/reach advantage
- Decision 66% dominant method
The breakdown
Cristian Quinonez is 1-2 in the UFC with his one win by KO. On a 2-fight losing streak but only 29 years old. Coming off a 735-day layoff. Kris Moutinho is best known for his incredible toughness — he absorbed 230 strikes from Sean O'Malley in his UFC debut and kept coming forward. He's 0-3 but never been finished. Iron chin.
Quinonez is a massive -500 favourite against the winless Moutinho. Model agrees at 77.4% but sees the market slightly ahead at 79.7%. KO/TKO 40% is the top method. Moutinho at +370 has a tiny +2.3pp edge for the brave. Moutinho's chin is legendary but his skills aren't UFC level.
- Quinonez 1-2, on 2-fight skid
- Moutinho 0-3 but never been finished
- Moutinho legendary toughness
- KO/TKO 40% top method
- Market slightly ahead of model
- Quinonez 735-day layoff
The breakdown
Douglas Silva de Andrade is a 40-year-old veteran with a 7-6 UFC record. Known for grinding decisions (71.4% decision rate). Coming off a 623-day layoff. Javier Reyes is making his UFC debut at 32. Unknown at UFC level but has a 5" reach advantage at 73" despite being the same height.
Reyes is the pick at 69.7% with a small +2.7pp edge. Despite being a debutant, the model favours him over the aging Silva de Andrade who is 40 with a 623-day layoff. Decision 46% is the top method but KO (30%) and SUB (24%) are both live. A competitive opener.
- Silva de Andrade 40 years old
- 623-day layoff for Silva de Andrade
- Reyes UFC debut, unknown
- Reyes 5" reach advantage
- Three-way method split
The breakdown
Regina Tarin is making her UFC debut at just 21 years old, fighting at home in Mexico City. A southpaw with potential. Ernesta Kareckaite is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a 413-day layoff. Her only win was by decision. 27 years old with a height and reach advantage.
Model gives her 64.0% vs market 50.0% = a massive +14.0pp edge. This is one of the biggest edges on the card. Despite being a debut fighter, Tarin has youth and hometown energy. Kareckaite's layoff and middling record work against her.
- Tarin UFC debut at only 21
- Even money line but model says 64%
- Kareckaite 413-day layoff
- Tarin southpaw stance
- Hometown advantage in Mexico City
The breakdown
Erik Silva is 0-2 in the UFC and 38 years old. Coming off a massive 735-day layoff. Never won in the octagon. Francis Marshall is 2-3 but has a KO win and is only 26. Coming off a loss but has shown flashes of ability. Both fighters are struggling but Marshall has youth on his side.
Marshall is the pick at 74.6% — HIGH confidence. Erik Silva at +390 has a +5.9pp underdog edge. DEC 40% slight favourite over KO 38.5% — live three-way method split.
- Marshall 26 vs Silva 38 — age gap
- Silva 0-2 with 735-day layoff
- Marshall has KO power
- HIGH confidence but market ahead
- Live three-way method split
The breakdown
Damian Pinas is making his UFC debut at just 23 years old. A tall middleweight at 6'1" with an impressive 79" reach. Fighting at home in Mexico City. Wes Schultz is also making his UFC debut at 29. Same height but 2" less reach. Both completely unknown at UFC level.
Two debutants with zero UFC data. KO/TKO 39% is the top method in what should be a violent middleweight debut clash. Under 2.5 rounds at 79% suggests an early finish is very likely.
- Both UFC debutants — zero data
- Pinas younger at 23 vs 29
- Pinas 2" reach advantage
- Market ahead of model
- Under 2.5 rounds at 79%
- KO/TKO most likely at 39%