The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomModel autopsy: A clean 10-for-13 night at UFC Fight Night: Basharat vs. VazquezThe model named a 17% underdog as the winner, and he won. All three flagged picks landed too. Here is the full grade, misses included.
The breakdown
Bautista is the experienced technician at 10-3, switch-stance specialist with a 90% decision rate across 13 UFC fights. Oliveira arrives undefeated at 4-0 with a 4-fight win streak and strong 1608 Elo. The model sees the market undervaluing the unbeaten prospect significantly.
- Bautista 90% decision rate — elite at controlling pace
- Oliveira undefeated at 4-0 with rising Elo (1608)
- Both switch-stance fighters — tactical chess match likely
- Market has Bautista -179 but model gives Oliveira 53.8%
The breakdown
Horiguchi is the former Rizin champion with an 8-1 UFC record and elite 1644 Elo — on a 4-fight win streak. Albazi was 5-1 with 4 consecutive wins before his last loss and has been inactive for 462 days. The layoff is a significant concern against Horiguchi's sharp recent form.
- Horiguchi 4-fight win streak, 1644 Elo — elite flyweight
- Albazi 462-day layoff — ring rust a major factor
- Horiguchi 75% decision rate — point-fighting specialist
- Both orthodox stance, similar height at 5'4"-5'5"
- Horiguchi's reach disadvantage (63" vs 68") offset by speed
The breakdown
Almeida is the proven heavyweight at 8-2 with 3 KO wins and a high 1639 Elo. Kuniev is 0-1 in the UFC coming off a loss with a 1487 Elo. Almeida's experience advantage is massive — the model gives him 63.2% with a +5.4pp edge over the market line.
- Almeida 8-2 with elite 1639 Elo vs Kuniev's 1487
- Kuniev 0-1 in UFC — massive experience gap
- Almeida's 37.5% finish rate — can end fights early
- HW power means anything can happen despite skill gap
The breakdown
Oleksiejczuk is a finishing machine — 88.9% KO rate with 8 of 9 wins by knockout. On a 2-fight win streak from a southpaw stance. Barriault is 6-9 and on a losing skid (LLLWL form). The model gives Oleksiejczuk 78.5% — one of the most confident picks on the card.
- Oleksiejczuk 88.9% KO rate — pure finisher
- Barriault 6-9 record, on LLLWL form
- Oleksiejczuk southpaw stance creates angles
- Model 78.5% with HIGH confidence
- KO/TKO 56.1% most likely method — expect violence
The breakdown
Basharat is undefeated at 5-0 with a perfect 5-fight win streak and all decisions — a pure point-fighter with 1622 Elo. Matsumoto is 3-1 with a recent bounce-back win. The model favours Basharat at 67% as the more polished technical fighter.
- Basharat 5-0, all by decision — elite point-fighting
- Matsumoto 3-1 but 100% decision rate too
- Basharat's reach advantage (71" vs 68")
- Both orthodox — could be a technical chess match
- Model 67% Basharat with MED confidence
The breakdown
- Jacoby 66.7% KO rate — dangerous power
- Walker's youth (26) and size advantage (6'4", 78" reach)
- Model 57% Walker vs market 38% — huge +19pp edge
- Jacoby 252-day layoff could affect timing
- LHW power means either man can end it
The breakdown
Donchenko made an explosive UFC debut with a KO win and sits at 1525 Elo despite just 1 fight. Morono is the veteran at 13-9 but on a brutal 3-fight losing streak (LWLLL form). The model gives Donchenko LOCK confidence at 82.5% — the most dominant pick on the card.
- Donchenko 100% KO rate in UFC debut
- Morono on 3-fight losing streak, declining at 35
- LOCK confidence at 82.5% — model's strongest pick
- Donchenko 11 years younger (24 vs 35)
- KO/TKO 48.6% most likely method
The breakdown
Veretennikov is 1-3 with only 1 win from 4 UFC bouts and a 1458 Elo — on a losing streak. Price is the veteran at 8-9 with a 50% KO rate but also on a 2-fight skid. The model gives Veretennikov 58.8% but sees the market overpaying for him at -278.
- Veretennikov 1-3 record, low 1458 Elo
- Price veteran experience with 50% KO rate
- Market -278 vs model 58.8% — Price undervalued
- Both on losing streaks — classic gatekeeper fight
- Price's 76" reach gives him range advantage
The breakdown
Brasil is 3-3 with a recent win (WLWLW form) and 100% decision rate. Souza is 2-3 on a 2-fight losing streak but the model slightly favours her at 53.5%. Both have 0% finish rate — this is going the distance.
- Souza slight model favourite at 53.5%
- Both 100% decision rate — guaranteed to go distance
- Souza on 2-fight losing streak despite model favour
- Decision 69% — highest decision probability on the card
The breakdown
Basharat is 3-2 with a 100% decision rate and 1524 Elo but coming off a 2-fight losing streak and 350-day layoff. Vazquez is making his UFC debut with a default 1500 Elo.
- Basharat on 2-fight losing streak with long layoff
- Vazquez UFC debut — unknown quantity
- Market line (-714) wildly overprices Basharat
- Model 68% vs market 84.3% — Vazquez undervalued
- Basharat's 100% decision rate means this goes long
The breakdown
Identical 3-1 records and similar profiles — both on 2-fight win streaks with 33.3% finish rates. Wang Cong has a slight Elo edge (1543 vs 1551) and southpaw stance advantage. The model gives Wang Cong 61.5% but sees the market overpricing her at -357.
- Wang Cong southpaw stance creates awkward angles
- Identical records (3-1) and win streaks
- Market line -357 much wider than model's 61.5%
- Moura undervalued at +275 with +13.1pp edge
- Decision 63.5% heavily favoured — low finish expectation
The breakdown
Gafurov is 2-2 with a 2-fight win streak and 100% decision rate. Wiklacz is 1-0 from a UFC debut decision win with a 1524 Elo.
- Gafurov 385-day layoff — serious ring rust concern
- Wiklacz 3" reach advantage (72" vs 68")
- True toss-up at 51.1% — model splits hairs
- Wiklacz at +110 offers +5.6pp edge
- Both 100% decision rate — expect a chess match
The breakdown
Sygula is 1-1 with a recent win and strong 71.1% model probability despite being only a slight -136 favourite. Cachoeira is 5-7 with an 80% KO rate but on a losing skid (WLLWL form).
- Sygula model 71.1% vs market 57.7% — huge edge
- Cachoeira 80% KO rate but 5-7 overall
- HIGH confidence — model's second strongest conviction
- Cachoeira's declining form (WLLWL)
- Sygula's 231-day layoff is the only concern