Dariush is the lightweight veteran who has fought everyone — twice — and has been ranked top-five in the division for most of the last four years. Salkilld is the 26-year-old Australian undefeated in the UFC who's drawn three favourites in a row and beaten all of them. The model strongly disagrees with the scorecard read here.

Salkilld is significantly bigger (3-inch reach, 2-inch height) and hasn't taken a backward step since arriving. Dariush's grappling-heavy game-plans need a volume-and-pressure striker to back up; instead he's getting one who walks him down.

• Salkilld undefeated in UFC, all wins as a betting underdog
• Dariush 1-3 in his last 4 — career arc question
• 3-inch reach gap and 10-year age gap, both Salkilld's way
• Dariush's takedown game on a 26-year-old physical specimen is the swing factor
• Market and model align at ~80% — flat-priced, no edge

Elliott is 39 and a former title challenger who's been a pace-pushing oddball in the flyweight division for over a decade. Erceg is also Australian, also coming off a tough stretch, but the home crowd plus a 9-year age advantage plus a 2-inch reach edge stack the physicals heavily one way.

Elliott's tank has been visibly thinning — he's lost 5 of his last 7, and Erceg is exactly the kind of younger southpaw with reach and movement who has historically given him problems. The model puts Erceg at 74% against a market that has him at 67% — that 7pp gap is the biggest STRONG signal on the main card.

• 9-year age gap — Elliott 39, Erceg 30
• Elliott 5 losses in his last 7 — visible decline
• Erceg's 2-inch reach edge plays cleanly on a stalking flyweight
• Both Australian — neutral crowd factor
• Elliott has never been finished by a flyweight — distance/decision is the likely shape

Gaziev is a Dagestani heavyweight grappler with sambo pedigree, 1-2 in his last three after a hot UFC start. Pericic is a 6'5 Croatian-American KO threat who's 2-0 in the UFC, both finishes, both inside two minutes. Heavyweight scrap with very different exit conditions.

If Gaziev gets it down he probably wins by control or arm-triangle inside two rounds — but Pericic's takedown defence has held up through two UFC fights and his hands are heavy. The model is on Pericic by 6 points; the market's barely on him. Caveat: Polymarket liquidity on this fight is a fraction of the rest of the card.

• Pericic 100% finish rate over a 2-fight UFC sample
• Gaziev's grappling vs Pericic's untested TDD — central swing
• 1-inch reach and 1-inch height edges to Pericic, both heavyweight-marginal
• 36 vs 31 — heavyweight cardio question late
• Tiny Polymarket liquidity on this market (<$2k) — wide spreads, model edge possibly noise

Rowston is a 6'3 Australian middleweight, 2-0 in the UFC with both wins as the favourite, and arguably the most under-the-radar prospect on the card. Bryczek is a Polish gym-rat 1-1 with a finish loss to a ranked opponent in his last outing.

Three-inch reach and four-year age advantage stack with Rowston, and the model gives him 70% — the market is at 63%. Bryczek's path to a win is dragging it into a ground scramble, which is also Rowston's preferred terrain. Decision-leaning fight on paper, with the home favourite holding most of the technical edges.

• Rowston 2-0 UFC, both as favourite
• 3-inch reach and 4-year age gap, both Rowston's way
• Bryczek's last UFC fight ended in a stoppage loss
• Home crowd advantage at the end of the main card
• Both 80%+ decision-history — dist/decision is the likely line

Tafa is a Tongan-Australian heavyweight dropping to light heavyweight after losing 5 of his last 6 — career-saving fight territory. Christian is a 6'7 light heavyweight who lost his UFC debut on short notice and now gets a real camp.

The market sees Tafa as the favourite at -174; the model has Christian by 5pp. Christian's reach advantage is huge (5 inches) and Tafa hasn't shown the wrestling depth to take that away. If Christian's striking from his second-fight nerves was the issue, the second look could be a different fight.

• 5-inch reach gap, Christian's way — biggest on the card
• Tafa 1-5 in his last 6 — drops divisions in desperation
• Christian's UFC debut was on short notice
• Tiny Polymarket liquidity (~$1k) — model edge may be fragile

Malkoun is the home middleweight, 5-3 in the UFC with a wrestling-heavy game-plan that wins or loses based on takedown success. Meerschaert is the most experienced fighter on the card by a mile — 25 UFC fights, decades of submissions and ugly scrambles, the gatekeeper of the division.

The model loves Malkoun at 81.7% — wrestler walking into a striker who's been finished 13 times. The market is at 87.5%. Meerschaert's submission threat from anywhere is the live-dog factor — Malkoun has to wrestle without diving into a guillotine.

• 25 UFC fights for Meerschaert — most experienced fighter on the card
• 8-year age gap, Malkoun's way
• 4-inch reach gap, Meerschaert's way — gives him guillotine geometry
• Model says Malkoun 81.7%, market says 87.5% — model is LESS bullish than market

Thicknesse is a 26-year-old Australian bantamweight with one UFC win and one loss; Morales is the journeyman 3-8 in the UFC with losses to virtually everyone he's been matched against in the last two years.

9-year age gap, home crowd, model has Thicknesse at 67.9% against a market splitting it down the middle at -115. STRONG flag on the home favourite. Morales is durable enough that this probably goes 15 minutes, but 'lasts 15 minutes' and 'wins' are two different things.

• 9-year age gap, Thicknesse's way
• Morales 0-4 in his last 4 — career on its last leg
• Home crowd factor
• Model 67.9% vs market 53.5% — biggest STRONG flag on the prelims
• 100% decision history for both — distance is the likely shape

Micallef is 2-0 in the UFC, undefeated, an Australian welterweight on a quick rise. Gorimbo is the South African veteran 4-3 in the UFC who's been in the cage with everyone but never quite established a streak.

Equal reach, 8-year age gap to Micallef, model has him at 62.8% against a market at 67.5%. Veteran-with-experience play; the type the model occasionally over-rates an opponent's prospect-curve on.

• Equal 77-inch reach — neutral physical
• 8-year age gap to Micallef
• Gorimbo 4-3 UFC — won't be intimidated by an unbeaten prospect
• Model softer than market on the favourite — UNDERDOG flag
• Polymarket liquidity light here too