The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomJones edges Sola in a coin-flip headliner as our model nails 11 of 13UFC Fight Night: Jones vs Sola handed our predictions one of their cleaner nights of 2026: 85% accuracy, a perfect 4-for-4 on flagged picks, and a correct read on a main event we openly called a toss-up.
The breakdown
Evloev is undefeated in the UFC at 9-0, all by decision. Relentless wrestling pressure, top control specialist from Dagestan. 9-fight win streak including wins over The Korean Zombie, Ilia Topuria (via DEC), and Arnold Allen. 469-day layoff is a concern. Murphy is also 9-0 in the UFC with 3 KO wins. Manchester-born, fighting in London at The O2. Dangerous striker with a 3-inch reach advantage. Both men unbeaten — winner likely gets a title shot.
Two unbeaten featherweights in a title eliminator. Evloev’s grinding wrestling vs Murphy’s striking. Evloev 100% decision rate in UFC. Murphy has 3 KOs but also 6 decisions. Long layoff (469 days) for Evloev is the main concern. London crowd behind Murphy. Winner gets title shot.
- Both 9-0 in UFC — elite unbeaten records
- Evloev 100% decision rate, relentless wrestler
- Murphy 3 KOs, fighting at home in London
- Evloev 469-day layoff
- Winner likely gets FW title shot
The breakdown
Riley is 1-0 with a KO win in his UFC debut. 26 years old from the UK, fighting at home. Aswell Jr. is 1-1, coming off a win. Similar size and reach. Model favours Riley at 58.2% but market has him much higher at 67.4%.
Riley LOW confidence at 58.2%. Both young fighters with minimal UFC data. KO/TKO favoured at 50.2%. Market overprices Riley at -207. Aswell Jr. at +207 has +9.2pp model edge.
- Riley LOW confidence at 58.2%
- KO/TKO favoured at 50.2%
- Both young with minimal data
- Riley fighting at home in London
- Aswell Jr. +207 has +9.2pp model edge
- Market overpricing Riley at -207
The breakdown
Michael "Venom" Page is a former Bellator star known for flashy karate-style striking and highlight-reel KOs. 38 years old, 3-1 in UFC with all wins by decision. Switch stance specialist with incredible reach. Patterson is a rising 29-year-old on a 4-fight win streak with 2 KOs. Same height and similar reach — a true stylistic chess match between strikers.
MVP’s flashy karate vs Patterson’s momentum. Page 3-1 UFC all by decision. Patterson 4-fight win streak. Model sees this as a coin flip despite market favouring Page. London crowd split — both UK fighters.
- Page flashy karate style, 38 years old
- Patterson 4-fight win streak, 29 years old
- Both UK fighters — London crowd split
- Model 54.3% Page but market at 63.4%
The breakdown
Baraniewski is a 27-year-old Polish prospect, 1-0 with a KO win. Heavy -556 favourite. Lane is a former NFL player at 38 years old, 1-4 with a 2-fight losing streak. 6-inch height and 7-inch reach advantage for Lane but model sees significant skill gap.
Baraniewski HIGH confidence pick at 72.7%. Lane is 1-4 at 38 years old. KO/TKO most likely at 60.3%. Expected to be a quick fight — Under 2.5 rounds at 68%.
- Baraniewski HIGH confidence at 72.7%
- Lane 1-4 at 38 years old
- KO/TKO 60.3% most likely method
- Under 2.5 rounds at 68%
- Lane massive reach advantage (80" vs 73")
- Lane +400 has +8.2pp model edge
The breakdown
Dolidze is a 37-year-old Georgian veteran at 9-4 with 5 KO wins. Power puncher coming off a loss. Duncan is a 30-year-old British prospect on a 3-fight win streak with 5 KO wins in 6. 83.3% finish rate. 3-inch reach advantage. Fighting at home in London.
Duncan HIGH confidence pick at 73.4%. On a 3-fight win streak with devastating KO power. Dolidze coming off a loss at 37. Duncan’s 79" reach vs Dolidze’s 76" gives him a striking advantage at range. London crowd behind Duncan.
- Duncan HIGH confidence at 73.4%
- Duncan 3-fight win streak, 83.3% finish rate
- Dolidze 37 years old, coming off a loss
- Duncan 3-inch reach advantage
- London hometown fighter
- Dolidze +300 has +2.9pp model edge
The breakdown
Campbell is a 23-year-old making his UFC debut as a heavy -213 favourite. Switch stance fighter. Silva is 2-1 with a 100% decision rate but coming off a loss on a 231-day layoff.
MED confidence at 62.7% for Campbell despite being a debutant. Market has him at 64.7%. Silva’s experience (2-1) matters but model still favours Campbell. DEC most likely at 50.1% but live three-way.
- Campbell MED confidence at 62.7%
- Campbell UFC debut at age 23
- Silva 2-1 but coming off a loss
- Switch stance vs switch stance
- DEC 50.1% most likely
The breakdown
Mason Jones is a Welsh fighter with a 3-2 UFC record on a 2-fight win streak. Technical striker with 66.7% decision rate. Sola is 1-0 with a KO win in his debut. 4-inch height advantage as a southpaw. Both fighters coming off 196-day layoffs.
True toss-up. Jones more experienced at 3-2 with a 2-fight streak. Sola is a big southpaw with KO power but only 1 UFC fight. Model 51.6% Jones barely edges Sola. 5-round fight scheduled.
- Jones 2-fight win streak, more experienced
- Sola 4-inch height advantage, southpaw
- Both on 196-day layoffs
- True toss-up at 51.6% vs 48.4%
- 5-round fight — favours Jones’s cardio
The breakdown
Nathaniel "The Prospect" Wood is a London native, 10-3 in UFC with all 10 wins by decision. 3-fight win streak. Master technician at range with excellent footwork. Keita is making his UFC debut as a heavy -227 favourite, suggesting strong regional credentials. The model sees Wood as significantly undervalued at +175.
Wood fighting at home in London, 3-fight win streak and 100% decision rate. Keita a UFC debutant but heavy favourite.
- Wood 100% decision rate, fighting at home
- Keita UFC debut, heavy -227 favourite
- Model 47.6% Wood vs 34.4% market = +13.3pp edge
- Wood’s experience advantage massive
The breakdown
Pinto is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins by KO. 28-year-old Portuguese heavyweight with massive -833 favourite status. Franco is a 25-year-old Brazilian making his UFC debut. Model gives Pinto 70.1% — significantly lower than market’s 85.8%.
HIGH confidence at 70.1% for Pinto but market has him much higher at 85.8%. KO/TKO top method at 41.3% with SUB 36.8% — finish expected.
- Pinto HIGH confidence at 70.1%
- Pinto 2-0 with 2 KOs
- Franco UFC debut, 25 years old
- Market 85.8% vs model 70.1% = massive discrepancy
- Finish expected — only 30.8% goes distance
The breakdown
Kondratavicius is a 26-year-old Lithuanian making his UFC debut as a massive -714 favourite. Trocoli is 0-3 in the UFC at 35 years old on a 3-fight losing streak. Despite Trocoli’s 5-inch reach advantage, the model gives Kondratavicius 82.9%.
LOCK confidence at 82.9%. Trocoli is 0-3 and clearly UFC-level deficient. Kondratavicius expected to finish early. KO/TKO top method at 38.1% but live three-way with SUB at 29.5%. Under 2.5 rounds at 73%.
- LOCK confidence at 82.9%
- Trocoli 0-3 on 3-fight losing streak
- Expected early finish
- Under 2.5 rounds at 73%
- Live three-way method — KO 38%, SUB 30%, DEC 32%
- Trocoli 5-inch reach advantage irrelevant
The breakdown
Sutherland is 0-1, a 32-year-old British heavyweight coming off a loss. Pericic is 1-0 with a KO win in his debut. 2-inch height and 3-inch reach advantage for Pericic. Model favours Pericic at 68.7%.
MED confidence at 68.7% for Pericic. KO/TKO top method at 48.7%. Expected quick fight — Under 2.5 rounds at 71.2%. Heavyweights with KO power, don’t expect this to go the distance (20.6%).
- Pericic MED confidence at 68.7%
- KO/TKO 48.7% top method
- Under 2.5 rounds at 71%
- Pericic reach advantage (79" vs 76")
- Only 20.6% goes distance
- Sutherland +215 has small model edge
The breakdown
Rock is 0-1, a 32-year-old southpaw coming off a loss. Al-Selwady is also 0-1 but has been out for 749 days — a massive layoff. Both fighters looking for their first UFC win. Rock has a 4-inch reach advantage.
True toss-up between two 0-1 fighters. Al-Selwady model pick at 50.5% but this is essentially a coin flip. Rock’s 4-inch reach advantage vs Al-Selwady’s long layoff (749 days). DEC favoured at 58.2%.
- Both 0-1 in UFC, searching for first win
- Al-Selwady 749-day layoff is massive
- Rock 4-inch reach advantage, southpaw
- True coin flip at 50.5% vs 49.5%
- DEC favoured at 58.2%
The breakdown
Dyer is a 24-year-old British prospect making her UFC debut. Heavy -455 favourite suggesting strong regional credentials. Fighting at home in London. Oliveira is 0-2 in the UFC on a 2-fight losing streak. Model strongly favours Dyer at 74.2%.
Dyer HIGH confidence pick at 74.2% despite being a debutant. Oliveira 0-2 and struggling in the UFC. Dyer’s youth (24) and London crowd support. DEC slightly favoured at 51.2% but submission live at 31.8%.
- Dyer HIGH confidence at 74.2%
- Oliveira 0-2 in UFC
- Dyer fighting at home in London, age 24
- Heavy -455 market favourite
- Oliveira +325 has +3.5pp model edge