The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomLeavitt grinds out del Valle; our model picked the wrong way and paid for itA three-round decision sank a HIGH-confidence pick at UFC Fight Night on Feb. 21, headlining a 9-for-14 night for the model. Here's the grade, misses included.
The breakdown
Strickland is a former UFC middleweight champion with elite volume striking and 75% decision rate across 23 UFC fights. Hernandez rides an 8-fight win streak with a 77.8% decision rate, showing similar grinding tendencies. The model favours Hernandez at 75.8% based on Elo (1671 vs 1664) and momentum, though Strickland's championship experience and 378-day layoff make this a fascinating stylistic clash.
- Hernandez on 8-fight win streak vs Strickland coming off a loss
- Strickland 378-day layoff — longest of his career
- Both fighters heavily decision-oriented (75% and 78%)
- Hernandez higher Elo (1671 vs 1664) despite being the younger fighter
- Model sees +6.3pp edge on Hernandez at -278
The breakdown
Neal is an experienced welterweight with 13 UFC fights and a 62.5% KO rate, but he's on a loss. Medic has won his last 2 with a 100% finish rate — all 6 wins by KO. The model sees this as a dead heat at 50.3% for Medic. KO/TKO at 50% is dominant — two power punchers in a coin flip.
- Both southpaws — mirror match dynamics
- Medic 100% KO rate (6 for 6 wins)
- Neal 62.5% KO rate — both finishers
- KO/TKO at 50% — someone is getting knocked out
- Neal higher Elo (1590 vs 1571) but model calls it even
The breakdown
Costa is on a stunning 5-fight win streak with an Elo of 1606 vs Ige's 1556. Ige is a veteran with 20 UFC fights but has gone win-loss alternating recently (WLLWL form).
- Costa 5-fight win streak — surging contender
- Ige 11-9 with alternating form — inconsistent
- Costa higher Elo (1606 vs 1556)
- Decision at 55% favoured but KO (27%) is live
The breakdown
A true coin flip between two heavyweights — the model gives Delija a razor-thin 50.5% edge. Spivac has 14 UFC fights of experience but is on a 2-fight losing streak. Delija is 1-1 with a KO win and has identical physical dimensions to Spivac. KO/TKO at 63% is the dominant method — heavyweight power makes this volatile.
- Spivac on 2-fight losing streak with 259-day layoff
- Delija 1-1 with limited UFC sample size
- KO/TKO at 63% — heavyweight power dominates
- Identical height (6'3") and reach (78")
- Under 2.5 rounds at 68% — likely doesn't go the distance
The breakdown
Smith is 2-0 in the UFC with a 50% finish rate and a southpaw stance. Harrell makes his UFC debut as a significant underdog at +265.
- Smith 2-0 but model only gives him 59.7% vs market's 73.9%
- Harrell UFC debut — complete unknown quantity
- SUB (39%) is the top method — grappling could be key
- Under 1.5 rounds at 43% — early finish possible
The breakdown
Reese is on a 2-fight win streak with a switch stance and 6'4" frame giving him a 4-inch height advantage. Pereira has lost 3 straight (WWLLL form) and his Elo has dropped to 1575. The model sees this as a genuine toss-up at 54.8% for Reese, but with +4.8pp edge at even money odds.
- Pereira on 3-fight losing streak — desperate territory
- Reese 4-inch height and reach advantage
- Both fighters decision-heavy (75% and 78%)
- Even money line with model edge to Reese
- Pereira 182-day layoff vs Reese's 105 days
The breakdown
Njokuani is a veteran striker at 37 with a 60% KO rate and 80" reach from a 6'3" frame. Leal is 1-2 and coming off a loss. The model barely favours Leal at 54.4% — a genuine toss-up with no edge at -137. KO/TKO at 47% is the top method, reflecting both fighters' finishing tendencies.
- Njokuani massive reach advantage (80" vs 74")
- Leal 1-2 record — limited and inconsistent
- KO/TKO at 47% — striking power on both sides
- Njokuani 60% KO rate despite being the underdog
- True pick'em with no meaningful edge
The breakdown
Osbourne has extensive UFC experience (12 fights) but a losing record at 5-7 with a 3-fight losing streak in recent form. Idiris is 0-1 in his UFC career. The model narrowly favours Idiris at 54.3% but the market is tighter at 57.1%, leaving no edge. Decision at 52% is the slight method favourite.
- Osbourne 5-7 record with recent LLLWL form
- Idiris 0-1 but market prices him at -149
- Osbourne 5-inch reach advantage (73" vs 68")
- Decision at 52% in a close fight
The breakdown
Coria won his UFC debut by KO and faces Gurule who is 0-2 with no wins. Coria's Elo advantage (1525 vs 1450) is significant. Decision at 56% is the top method despite Coria's debut KO.
- Coria 1-0 with debut KO vs Gurule 0-2
- Coria 3-inch height and reach advantage
- Gurule on 2-fight losing streak with no UFC wins
- Decision at 56% despite both fighters' limited samples
The breakdown
Edwards is on a 3-fight win streak with 11 UFC fights of experience compared to Cornolle's 5. The model gives Edwards 71.0% — almost exactly matching the market at 72.0%. Decision at 67% is heavily favoured, consistent with women's bantamweight tendencies.
- Edwards 3-fight win streak with 11-fight UFC experience
- Cornolle coming off a loss with 203-day layoff
- Decision at 67% overwhelmingly likely
- Market and model nearly aligned — no edge either way
- Edwards 4-inch reach advantage at 70 inches
The breakdown
Both fighters are on 3-fight win streaks with nearly identical Elo ratings (1547 vs 1542). The model flips the market, giving Soriano 57.3% despite Brahimaj being the -130 favourite. Brahimaj is decision-heavy (80%) while Soriano finishes at 66.7% — a striking vs grinding dynamic.
- Both on 3-fight win streaks — momentum even
- Model flips the market: Soriano 57.3% vs market 46.1%
- Biggest model edge on the card at +11.2pp
- Soriano 66.7% KO rate vs Brahimaj's 80% decision rate
- Identical layoffs (140 days) — conditioning neutral
The breakdown
Rowe is 4-4 with a 100% KO rate on his wins but alternating form (WLLWL). Lebosnoyani makes his UFC debut as a switch-stance fighter with zero UFC data. The model barely leans Lebosnoyani at 51.7% — a true coin flip. Rowe has significant size advantages at 6'3" with 80" reach.
- Lebosnoyani UFC debut — complete unknown
- Rowe 4-inch height and 8-inch reach advantage
- Rowe 100% KO rate but also 100% KO losses
- Even money line — no edge for either side
- Decision (45%) slight favourite in a three-way split
The breakdown
Del Valle is unbeaten at 2-0 with a 100% decision rate and higher Elo (1546 vs 1538). Leavitt is 5-3 with alternating form (WLWLW) and a 266-day layoff.
- Del Valle unbeaten at 2-0 vs Leavitt's alternating form
- Leavitt 266-day layoff — ring rust factor
- Market overprices del Valle at 76.0% vs model 72.6%
- Submission at 39% is the top method — grappling battle
- 5-round fight increases distance probability to 54%
The breakdown
Judice is on a 2-fight win streak with a 100% KO rate — both wins by knockout as a southpaw. Miller is 2-2 with alternating form and coming off a 294-day layoff.
- Judice 100% KO rate — both wins by knockout
- Miller 294-day layoff — ring rust concern
- Market overprices Judice at 82.7% vs model 72.4%
- Decision at 58% still favoured despite KO tendencies