The full card, graded
The recap · FightIQ NewsroomModel goes 10 of 13 at UFC: Kim vs Fan, sweeps its flagged picksDom Mar Fan took a three-round decision over Sangwook Kim, and our model called all three of its high-confidence picks correct on a 77% night.
The breakdown
Volkanovski returns home to Sydney for his title defence with 294 days off. At 37 with a LWLLW form line, he has shown vulnerability but remains the sport's elite point-fighter with a 1737 Elo. Lopes is the younger, longer challenger at 31 with a 50% finish rate and a 140-day turnaround, carrying dangerous knockout power into the rematch.
- Volkanovski's 294-day layoff vs Lopes' 140-day turnaround
- Volkanovski Elo 1737 vs Lopes 1631 — 106-point advantage
- Lopes 5-inch height and 1-inch reach advantage
- Volkanovski 64.3% decision rate — point-fighting specialist
- Lopes 50% KO rate — capable of ending it early
The breakdown
Saint Denis rides a 3-fight win streak with a 1632 Elo, carrying explosive 50% KO power as a southpaw. At 30, he is the younger, rising contender. Hooker is a veteran at 35 with a deep 23-fight UFC resume but coming off a loss. Both are switch-stance strikers which makes for a fascinating tactical battle at 155.
- Saint Denis 3-fight win streak vs Hooker coming off a loss
- Model gives BSD 63.7% — strong 13.7pp edge over market
- Hooker's 23-fight UFC experience at 35 years old
- Both are switch-stance strikers
- BSD's Elo 1632 narrowly edges Hooker's 1626
The breakdown
Fiziev is the experienced switch-stance kickboxer with a 1591 Elo and 42.9% KO rate, coming off a win after three straight losses. Ruffy is the rising 29-year-old with a 66.7% finish rate and dangerous power but is coming off his first UFC loss. This is a classic veteran technique vs young explosive power matchup at lightweight.
- Fiziev Elo 1591 vs Ruffy 1549 — experience edge
- Ruffy's 4-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage
- Fiziev's WLLLW form — inconsistent recently
- Ruffy 66.7% KO rate — heavy-handed finisher
- Model 55.0% Fiziev — essentially a coin flip
The breakdown
Tuivasa is on a brutal 5-fight losing streak with 532 days off, but fights at home in Sydney where the crowd will be electric. Teixeira is the 6'7" giant with an 8-inch reach advantage and 100% finish rate in the UFC. The model locks Teixeira at 81.1% — one of the most confident picks on the card despite his limited 2-fight UFC sample.
- Tuivasa on a 5-fight losing streak with 532-day layoff
- Teixeira 8-inch reach advantage at 6'7"
- Model LOCK at 81.1% — strongest confidence on the card
- Tuivasa hometown crowd factor in Sydney
- Teixeira 100% KO rate but only 2 UFC fights
The breakdown
Salkilld is the unbeaten prospect at 3-0 with a 1579 Elo, carrying a 66.7% KO rate and riding a 3-fight win streak. Mullarkey is the journeyman at 6-6 with an inconsistent LWLLW form line. At 26, Salkilld has youth and momentum on his side in this all-Australian lightweight clash.
- Salkilld 3-0 unbeaten vs Mullarkey 6-6
- Massive +21.
- Salkilld Elo 1579 vs Mullarkey 1511
- Both Australian — local crowd divided
- Salkilld 66.7% KO rate vs Mullarkey's 33.3%
The breakdown
Elekana is the model favourite at 62.3% with a 2-fight win streak and higher 1529 Elo. Tafa has struggled with a 2-4 record and 100% KO rate — he either knocks you out or loses. Both are 6'3" New Zealanders. The model sees Elekana as the more well-rounded fighter but Tafa carries one-punch power that keeps him dangerous.
- Elekana 2-fight win streak vs Tafa coming off a loss
- Tafa 100% KO rate but 2-4 overall — boom or bust
- Elekana 2-inch reach advantage
- Model MED 62.3% on Elekana
The breakdown
Rowston debuted with a KO win and carries a massive 6-inch reach advantage at 6'3". The model rates him at 74.2% with HIGH confidence. Brundage is the experienced but inconsistent journeyman at 5-6, coming off a loss with a 1483 Elo. The size and reach disparity makes this a bad matchup for the shorter American.
- Rowston 6-inch reach advantage at 6'3"
- Model HIGH 74.2% — clear confidence level
- Brundage 5-6 coming off a loss
- KO/TKO 57.8% is the dominant method
- Rowston only 126 days off vs Brundage 175
The breakdown
Malkoun returns after a massive 672-day layoff with mixed WLWLW form. He is the more experienced fighter at 4-3 but the model barely separates them at 50.4%. Finney is the younger debutant at 27 with a reach advantage and fresh momentum. The market prices Malkoun as a clear favourite but FightIQ sees this as a genuine coin flip.
- Malkoun's 672-day layoff is a major concern
- Model 50.4% vs market 59.3% — Malkoun overpriced
- Finney 2-inch reach advantage despite being shorter
- Malkoun 75% decision rate — grinding style
The breakdown
Micallef is the southpaw with a 5-inch reach advantage returning after 357 days off. Despite his decision-only UFC record, the model narrowly picks him at 52.9%. Elliott has the more proven resume at 3-1 but is coming off a loss, breaking his 3-fight win streak. A genuine toss-up between two developing welterweights.
- Micallef's 5-inch reach advantage as southpaw
- Micallef's 357-day layoff is concerning
- Elliott 3-1 but coming off a loss
- Model 52.9% barely clears market 52.6%
- Elliott Elo 1540 slightly edges Micallef's 1527
The breakdown
Two fighters with identical 1-2 records and similar stature, both coming off wins after two straight losses. Ofli is the decision specialist at 100% while Yizha has a 100% finish rate with KO power. The model slightly favours Yizha at 57.6% based on finishing ability and a 5-inch reach advantage.
- Yizha 5-inch reach advantage
- Both 1-2 with LLW form — mirror images
- Yizha 100% KO rate vs Ofli 0% finishes
- Model LOW 57.6% Yizha
- Ofli's 112-day turnaround vs Yizha's 161 days
The breakdown
Both fighters are making their UFC debuts through the Road to UFC tournament. Kim is the older fighter at 32 with a height advantage, while Fan is the younger prospect at 25 with a 4-inch reach edge. With no UFC data on either fighter, the model relies heavily on physical attributes and age, giving Fan a 59.7% edge.
- Both UFC debutants — no octagon data
- Fan 4-inch reach advantage at 25 years old
- Kim 7 years older at 32
- Model 59.7% Fan based on physical profile
- 5-round tournament final — cardio matters
The breakdown
Nakamura brings a 4-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage into this Road to UFC featherweight final. At 27, the southpaw Japanese fighter is the younger, longer option. Szalay is the 31-year-old Hungarian orthodox fighter with a compact frame. The model favours Nakamura at 58.8% based on physical advantages and youth.
- Nakamura 4-inch height and reach advantage
- Nakamura southpaw vs Szalay orthodox
- Nakamura 27 vs Szalay 31 — youth edge
- Both UFC debutants
- 5-round final — size advantage compounds over time
The breakdown
Another clash of UFC debutants in the Road to UFC bantamweight tournament final. Sulangrangbo is remarkably young at just 20 years old, the youngest fighter on the card. Lui is the older, more compact fighter at 29 with a 6-inch reach advantage. The model favours Sulangrangbo at 60.0% based on youth and athleticism despite the reach deficit.
- Sulangrangbo only 20 years old — youngest on card
- Lui 6-inch reach advantage at 29
- Both UFC debutants — no octagon data
- Model 60.0% Sulangrangbo based on age/athleticism
- 5-round final — youth advantage in deep waters