12:20
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev
Heavyweight · 5 rounds
The model's pick is Kennedy Nzechukwu over Shamil Gaziev at 55% confidence — a lean.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 49% (KO/TKO 49%, submission 10%, decision 42%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 29% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 12:20.
That read carries 8.3pp of edge above the market on Kennedy Nzechukwu.
Live on Polymarket, Kennedy Nzechukwu is priced around 46%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 49% | 40% |
| SUB YES | 10% | 39% |
| DEC YES | 42% | 21% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 29% | 21% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 67% | 43% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 48% | 23% |
The facts, side by side — Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev.
| 14-6-1 | Record | 14-3 |
| African Savage | Nickname | — |
| 6' 5" | Height | 6' 4" |
| 83.0" | Reach | 78.0" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 34 | Age | 36 |
| 236 lbs. | Weight | 265 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Bahrain |
| Dallas, Texas | Hometown | Manama |
| Fortis MMA | Fighting out of | KHK MMA |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Kennedy Nzechukwu15 UFC fights · 624 landed
Shamil Gaziev6 UFC fights · 163 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (left) vs Shamil Gaziev (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6'5" southpaw power striker with a 8-5 record, age 33. Standout metric: lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute; hits 46% of takedown attempts. Form: last 5: WLLWW · on a 2-fight win streak · 217 days off · Elo 1532.
6'4" orthodox finisher with a 3-1 record, age 35. Standout metric: defends 83% of takedowns; averages 282s of control time per fight. Form: last 5: WLWW · on a 2-fight win streak · 294 days off · Elo 1526.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →