10:28
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast
Lightweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Chris Padilla over Nasrat Haqparast at 53% confidence — a coin-flip.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 62% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 13%, decision 62%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 50% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 10:28.
That read carries 2.3pp of edge above the market on Chris Padilla.
Live on Polymarket, Chris Padilla is priced around 54%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 26% | 29% |
| SUB YES | 13% | 9% |
| DEC YES | 62% | 61% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 50% | 61% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 75% | 76% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 56% | 64% |
The facts, side by side — Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast.
| 17-6-1 | Record | 18-6 |
| Taco | Nickname | — |
| 5' 9" | Height | 5' 10" |
| 74.0" | Reach | 72.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Morocco |
| Gardena, California | Hometown | Rabat |
| California Mixed Martial Arts | Fighting out of | Tristar Gym |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Chris Padilla5 UFC fights · 330 landed
Nasrat Haqparast15 UFC fights · 1,120 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Chris Padilla (left) vs Nasrat Haqparast (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5'9" orthodox leg-kick heavy with a 3-0 record, age 30. Standout metric: defends 100% of takedowns. Form: last 5: WWW · on a 3-fight win streak · 231 days off · Elo 1534.
5'10" southpaw volume kickboxer with a 10-4 record, age 30. Standout metric: lands 6.4 significant strikes per minute; defends 85% of takedowns. Form: last 5: WWWWW · on a 5-fight win streak · 238 days off · Elo 1569.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →