10:19
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil
Lightweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Gauge Young over Stan Dorsainvil at 53% confidence — a coin-flip.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 56% (KO/TKO 27%, submission 17%, decision 56%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 57% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 10:19.
That read carries 7.5pp of edge below the market on Gauge Young.
Live on Polymarket, Gauge Young is priced around 62%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 27% | 26% |
| SUB YES | 17% | 14% |
| DEC YES | 56% | 60% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 57% | 60% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 75% | 74% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 63% | 63% |
The facts, side by side — Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil.
| 11-3 | Record | — |
| Gee Money | Nickname | — |
| 5' 9" | Height | — |
| 70.0" | Reach | — |
| Orthodox | Stance | — |
| 26 | Age | — |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | — |
| United States | Nationality | — |
| Kansas City, Missouri | Hometown | — |
| Ignite Jiu-Jitsu | Fighting out of | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Where the strikes go — and where they land on him. Career UFC totals, straight off the tape.
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Gauge Young (left) vs Stan Dorsainvil (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5'9" orthodox high-volume striker with a 1-1 record, age 25. Standout metric: lands 6.4 significant strikes per minute; defends 100% of takedowns. Form: last 5: LW · 1-fight win streak · 238 days off · Elo 1500.
No profile written for Stan Dorsainvil yet. We would rather leave this empty than fill it.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →