9:58
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer
Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Shanelle Dyer over Elise Reed at 79% confidence — a lock.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 47% (KO/TKO 24%, submission 29%, decision 47%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 59% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:58.
That read carries 9.0pp of edge below the market on Shanelle Dyer.
Live on Polymarket, Shanelle Dyer is priced around 88%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 24% | 46% |
| SUB YES | 29% | 14% |
| DEC YES | 47% | 40% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 59% | 40% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 75% | 61% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 62% | 47% |
The facts, side by side — Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer.
| 8-5 | Record | 7-1 |
| 5' 3" | Height | 5' 6" |
| 63.0" | Reach | 65.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 33 | Age | 25 |
| 115 lbs. | Weight | 115 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | England |
| Princeton, New Jersey | Hometown | London, Greater London |
| Kickside Martial Arts | Fighting out of | Great Britain Top Team |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Elise Reed9 UFC fights · 333 landed
Shanelle Dyer1 UFC fights · 49 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Elise Reed (left) vs Shanelle Dyer (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5'3" orthodox decision machine with a 4-4 record, age 32. Standout metric: hits 60% of takedown attempts. Form: last 5: WLWLW · 1-fight win streak · 210 days off · Elo 1501.
5'6" orthodox striker with a 0-0 record, age 24. Elo 1500.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →