7:49
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Jackson McVey vs Wes Schultz
Middleweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Jackson McVey over Wes Schultz at 52% confidence — a coin-flip.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 40% (KO/TKO 39%, submission 22%, decision 40%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 35% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 7:49.
That read carries 9.4pp of edge below the market on Jackson McVey.
Live on Polymarket, Jackson McVey is priced around 62%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 39% | 43% |
| SUB YES | 22% | 38% |
| DEC YES | 40% | 19% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 35% | 19% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 64% | 37% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 42% | 22% |
The facts, side by side — Jackson McVey vs Wes Schultz.
| 7-2 | Record | 9-3 |
| 6' 4" | Height | 6' 1" |
| 77.0" | Reach | 77.0" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 27 | Age | 30 |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| — | Nationality | United States |
| — | Hometown | Madison, Wisconsin |
| — | Fighting out of | Pura Vida BJJ |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jackson McVey3 UFC fights · 81 landed
Wes Schultz2 UFC fights · 15 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Jackson McVey (left) vs Wes Schultz (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6'4" southpaw high-volume striker with a 0-2 record, age 27. Standout metric: lands 5.9 significant strikes per minute. Form: last 5: LL · on a 2-fight slide · 168 days off · Elo 1478.
6'1" orthodox striker with a 0-0 record, age 29. Elo 1500.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →