9:32
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Marquel Mederos vs Mason Jones
Lightweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Mason Jones over Marquel Mederos at 66% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 48% (KO/TKO 32%, submission 20%, decision 48%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 48% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:32.
That read carries 9.6pp of edge below the market on Mason Jones.
Live on Polymarket, Mason Jones is priced around 78%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 32% | 27% |
| SUB YES | 20% | 13% |
| DEC YES | 48% | 60% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 48% | 60% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 65% | 77% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 54% | 63% |
The facts, side by side — Marquel Mederos vs Mason Jones.
| — | Record | 18-2 |
| — | Nickname | Dragon |
| — | Height | 5' 10" |
| — | Reach | 74.0" |
| — | Stance | Orthodox |
| — | Age | 31 |
| — | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| — | Nationality | Wales |
| — | Hometown | Blaenavon |
| — | Fighting out of | Pedro Bessa BJJ |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Marquel Mederos4 UFC fights · 326 landed
Mason Jones7 UFC fights · 541 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Marquel Mederos (left) vs Mason Jones (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
No profile written for Marquel Mederos yet. We would rather leave this empty than fill it.
5'10" orthodox wrestle-grinder with a 3-2 record, age 30. Standout metric: lands 5.6 significant strikes per minute; hits 54% of takedown attempts. Form: last 5: LWLWW · on a 2-fight win streak · 196 days off · Elo 1513.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →