8:34
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas
Featherweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Lerryan Douglas over Jamall Emmers at 64% confidence — a high-confidence pick.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 44% (KO/TKO 34%, submission 22%, decision 44%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 47% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 8:34.
That read carries 12.4pp of edge below the market on Lerryan Douglas.
Live on Polymarket, Lerryan Douglas is priced around 76%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 34% | 61% |
| SUB YES | 22% | 20% |
| DEC YES | 44% | 19% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 47% | 19% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 68% | 38% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 49% | 21% |
The facts, side by side — Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas.
| 22-8 | Record | 14-5 |
| Pretty Boy | Nickname | — |
| 5' 10" | Height | 5' 9" |
| 74.0" | Reach | 72.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 37 | Age | 31 |
| 145 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Brazil |
| Redlands, California | Hometown | Paranagua, Parana |
| Pinnacle MMA | Fighting out of | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jamall Emmers9 UFC fights · 422 landed
Lerryan Douglas1 UFC fights · 29 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Jamall Emmers (left) vs Lerryan Douglas (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5'10" orthodox power striker with a 4-4 record, age 36. Standout metric: lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute; defends 79% of takedowns. Form: last 5: WLWLW · 1-fight win streak · 224 days off · Elo 1502.
5'9" orthodox striker with a 0-0 record, age 30. Elo 1500.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →