9:31
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino
Heavyweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Vitor Petrino over Serghei Spivac at 59% confidence — a lean.
Most likely outcome: KO/TKO at 41% (KO/TKO 41%, submission 19%, decision 40%) — but all three finishes stay live.
The model gives it a 41% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 9:31.
That read carries 2.1pp of edge above the market on Vitor Petrino.
Live on Polymarket, Vitor Petrino is priced around 58%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 41% | 44% |
| SUB YES | 19% | 17% |
| DEC YES | 40% | 40% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 41% | 40% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 67% | 65% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 49% | 45% |
The facts, side by side — Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino.
| 18-6 | Record | 14-2 |
| Polar Bear | Nickname | — |
| 6' 3" | Height | 6' 2" |
| 78.0" | Reach | 77.0" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 31 | Age | 28 |
| 260 lbs. | Weight | 225 lbs. |
| Moldova | Nationality | Brazil |
| Chisinau | Hometown | Santa Luzia, Minas Gerais |
| Polar Bear Team | Fighting out of | CM System |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Serghei Spivac15 UFC fights · 448 landed
Vitor Petrino9 UFC fights · 294 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Serghei Spivac (left) vs Vitor Petrino (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6'3" orthodox wrestle-grinder with a 8-6 record, age 31. Standout metric: hits 62% of takedown attempts; finishes 38% of wins by submission. Form: last 5: WLWLL · on a 2-fight slide · 259 days off · Elo 1529.
6'2" orthodox wrestle-grinder with a 6-2 record, age 28. Standout metric: hits 51% of takedown attempts; defends 81% of takedowns. Form: last 5: WLLWW · on a 2-fight win streak · 154 days off · Elo 1542.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →