12:01
median time
Picks · Hernandez vs Rodrigues · Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze
Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
The model's pick is Reinier de Ridder over Roman Dolidze at 80% confidence — a lock.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 48% (KO/TKO 37%, submission 15%, decision 48%) — a lean rather than a call.
The model gives it a 56% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 12:01.
That read carries 1.9pp of edge above the market on Reinier de Ridder.
Live on Polymarket, Reinier de Ridder is priced around 78%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
The market line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only.
Our read on the method / round / distance markets — the market price shown for context, not as a bet call.
| Market | Our read | Market |
|---|---|---|
| KO/TKO YES | 37% | 21% |
| SUB YES | 15% | 28% |
| DEC YES | 48% | 51% |
| GOES DISTANCE YES | 56% | 51% |
| OVER 1.5 ROUNDS | 83% | 78% |
| OVER 2.5 ROUNDS | 70% | 56% |
The facts, side by side — Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze.
| 21-4 | Record | 15-5 |
| RdR | Nickname | — |
| 6' 4" | Height | 6' 2" |
| 78.0" | Reach | 76.0" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 35 | Age | 38 |
| 185 lbs. | Weight | 185 lbs. |
| Netherlands | Nationality | Georgia |
| Breda, North Brabant | Hometown | Batumi, Adjara |
| Combat Brothers | Fighting out of | Xtreme Couture |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against every fighter on record. The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Reinier de Ridder6 UFC fights · 203 landed
Roman Dolidze14 UFC fights · 578 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do.
Reinier de Ridder (left) vs Roman Dolidze (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6'4" southpaw top-control wrestler with a 4-1 record, age 35. Standout metric: averages 303s of control time per fight; finishes 50% of wins by submission. Form: last 5: WWWWL · 1-fight slide · 140 days off · Elo 1543.
6'2" orthodox finisher with a 9-4 record, age 37. Standout metric: averages 185s of control time per fight; finishes 56% of wins by KO. Form: last 5: LWWWL · 1-fight slide · 224 days off · Elo 1558.
No newsroom piece is mapped to this bout yet. The newsroom is live — read the latest →