There isn't much Octagon history to go on here. Jeisla Chaves has no prior UFC bouts in our records, and Yuneisy Duben enters with a single Octagon appearance — a first-round knockout loss to Carli Judice. So the read is necessarily light.
What signal exists points one way: Chaves is a clear betting favorite at -233, and FightIQ's model agrees at high confidence. With limited tape on both, that lean rests more on scouting and the market than on UFC results — worth stating plainly rather than dressing a near-newcomer fight up as a sure thing.