Josh Hokit has had a meteoric start: first-round knockouts of Max Gimenis and Denzel Freeman, then a genuine statement — a decision over former title challenger Curtis Blaydes. The market and the model agree he's the favorite (the model leans Hokit at medium confidence) over Derrick Lewis, the most prolific knockout artist in UFC history. But Lewis is exactly the kind of opponent a hot prospect can't get careless against — he's coming off a knockout loss to Waldo Cortes Acosta, but his power never fully leaves. If Hokit fights smart, his trajectory points up; if he stands and trades, Lewis only needs one.