Alex Pereira, already a champion at middleweight and light heavyweight, moves to heavyweight for the interim title and a shot at becoming the UFC's first-ever three-division champion. He's coming off a first-round knockout of Magomed Ankalaev that reclaimed his 205 belt. But this one is close: the line has Pereira a razor-thin favorite (-108), and FightIQ's model actually leans the other way — toward Ciryl Gane, at low confidence. Gane is the more natural heavyweight, the rangier mover, with losses only at the very top (a submission to Jon Jones, a no-contest with Tom Aspinall that froze the division and created this interim belt). It's a genuine model/market divergence — the kind we flag, not a play. The history is real either way: nobody has worn three UFC belts.