634 fighters have a read: UFC fighters with a fight in the last two years and at least three UFC fights. 2,115 more are listed with the reason there is no read. Everything runs in your browser; nothing you pick is sent anywhere.
How this works
What goes in
Each fighter’s UFC record and fight stats: results and how they came, striking and grappling rates, strength ratings built from who they have beaten, age, and how recently they fought. No betting odds and nothing from fights outside the UFC.
How two fighters become a lean
Every fighter has a profile, a list of numbers describing them. For a matchup we take the gap between the two profiles, weight each gap by how much it mattered across thousands of real UFC fights, and add it up. That total is turned into a lean out of 100 on a standard S-shaped curve: no gap at all is 50 in 100, and the bigger the gap the further it leans.
Why the order of names cannot matter
The read is built only from the difference between the two fighters, and swapping them just flips that difference. So one fighter at 63 in 100 is exactly the other at 37 in 100, whichever side you put them on. There is no built-in advantage for the first name. Use the swap button to check.
How the how-it-ends breakdown is built
Two smaller models, trained the same way, estimate how likely the fight is to go the full distance and, when it ends early, how likely the finish is a submission rather than a knockout. Running those through the lean gives six outcomes: each fighter by KO or TKO, by submission, or on the scorecards. “Out of 1000 imagined fights” is those six chances turned into whole numbers that add up to exactly 1000 and agree with the lean. There is no random simulation, so the same pair always shows the same numbers.
When finishes tend to happen
The round chart is the UFC-wide pattern for when early finishes happen, cut to the number of scheduled rounds you choose. Nothing about the two fighters changes it, so it is not a call on the round. The 3 or 5 rounds switch changes only this chart.
What it cannot know
Size: there is no weight or frame in the model, which is why pairs from far-apart divisions are refused and neighbouring divisions carry a warning. Injuries, illness, weight cuts, camp changes and motivation. Fights outside the UFC. Style the way a coach sees it: the model sees rates, not footage.
Why some fighters have no read
A read needs at least three UFC fights, a UFC fight in the last two years and a complete set of stats. When any of that is missing the tool shows the reason instead of a number. We do not fill gaps with guesses.
It is never graded
These fights are not booked, so there is nothing to score them against. Nothing here is a pick and none of it counts towards our public record. For the calls we can be held to, see this week’s picks.