This Saturday Volkanovski vs Evloev · Etihad Arena Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates See this week's picks →

Data-driven UFC predictions — with a public record.

This Saturday · 24 Oct 2026
Volkanovski vs Evloev
Etihad Arena Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates · 14 fights
68.89%
every fight we called · 2026 (299-135, n=434)
77.78%
on strong consensus (63-18, n=81)
68.89% is every fight we called in 2026 — 299-135 across 434 picks, all graded in public, toss-ups included. We don't cherry-pick. Not every call is equal: when our models strongly agree we run at 77.78% (63-18); whenever they agree at all, 74.7% (124-42). How our tiers work → · See the receipts →

This week's picks

Picks as of 20 Oct 11:43 UTC, when this page was built · live Polymarket prices as of 20 Oct 10:51 UTC (14 of 14 bouts priced on Polymarket). This is a static page: nothing on it updates until it is rebuilt.

Think you can call it better? Make your own picks ↓

MAIN CARD
★ Main Event · Featherweight -110 / -113
Alexander Volkanovski VS Movsar Evloev
37%63%
MEDWe predict Movsar Evloev — 63% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 59%
Goes distance
59%
Median time
20:34
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Movsar Evloev 50%
The model backs Movsar Evloev at 63%, +12.4pp vs the sportsbook line (50%). Most likely by decision (59%).
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev prediction
Bantamweight +150 / -175
Merab Dvalishvili VS Petr Yan
40%60%
MEDWe predict Petr Yan — 60% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 64%
Goes distance
64%
Median time
21:03
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Petr Yan 62%
The model backs Petr Yan at 60%, -1.0pp vs the sportsbook line (61%). Most likely by decision (64%).
Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan prediction
Flyweight -110 / -114
Lone'er Kavanagh VS Ramazan Temirov
55%45%
LOWWe predict Lone'er Kavanagh — 55% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 48%
Goes distance
48%
Median time
11:03
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Lone'er Kavanagh 50%
The model backs Lone'er Kavanagh at 55%, +5.7pp vs the sportsbook line (50%). Most likely by decision (48%).
Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov prediction
Heavyweight -115 / -103
Alexander Volkov VS Rizvan Kuniev
55%45%
TOSS-UPWe predict Alexander Volkov — 55% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 52%
Goes distance
52%
Median time
11:29
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Alexander Volkov 54%
The model backs Alexander Volkov at 55%, +3.2pp vs the sportsbook line (51%). Most likely by decision (52%).
Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev prediction
Featherweight -110 / -105
Aaron Pico VS Losene Keita
48%52%
TOSS-UPWe predict Losene Keita — 52% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 45%
Goes distance
39%
Median time
9:44
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Losene Keita 48%
The model backs Losene Keita at 52%, +2.8pp vs the sportsbook line (49%). Most likely by KO/TKO (45%).
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita prediction
PRELIMS
Light Heavyweight -210 / +175
Azamat Murzakanov VS Dominick Reyes
63%37%
MEDWe predict Azamat Murzakanov — 63% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 59%
Goes distance
32%
Median time
9:33
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Azamat Murzakanov 66%
The model backs Azamat Murzakanov at 63%, -2.1pp vs the sportsbook line (65%). Most likely by KO/TKO (59%).
Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes prediction
Light Heavyweight +350 / -450
Nikita Krylov VS Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
15%85%
LOCKWe predict Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev — 85% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 46%
Goes distance
21%
Median time
7:01
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 80%
The model backs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev at 85%, +6.6pp vs the sportsbook line (79%). Most likely by KO/TKO (46%).
Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev prediction
Middleweight -120 / +100
Abus Magomedov VS Cam Rowston
49%51%
TOSS-UPWe predict Cam Rowston — 51% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
KO/TKO · 42%
Goes distance
35%
Median time
9:42
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Cam Rowston 48%
The model backs Cam Rowston at 51%, +2.7pp vs the sportsbook line (48%). Most likely by KO/TKO (42%).
Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston prediction
Lightweight -125 / +110
Grant Dawson VS Nurullo Aliev
50%50%
TOSS-UPWe predict Nurullo Aliev — 50% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 57%
Goes distance
57%
Median time
11:56
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Nurullo Aliev 48%
The model backs Nurullo Aliev at 50%, +3.9pp vs the sportsbook line (46%). Most likely by decision (57%).
Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev prediction
EARLY PRELIMS
Bantamweight -500 / +400
ACAsaf Chopurov VS Colby Thicknesse
81%19%
We predict Asaf Chopurov — 81% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
DEC · 49%
Goes distance
49%
Median time
9:47
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Asaf Chopurov 82%
The model backs Asaf Chopurov at 81%, +0.0pp vs the sportsbook line (81%). Most likely by decision (49%).
Asaf Chopurov vs Colby Thicknesse prediction
Middleweight -170 / +146
Abubakar Vagaev VS Jacob Malkoun
57%43%
LOWWe predict Abubakar Vagaev — 57% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 48%
Goes distance
48%
Median time
11:07
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Abubakar Vagaev 62%
The model backs Abubakar Vagaev at 57%, -4.3pp vs the sportsbook line (61%). Most likely by decision (48%).
Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun prediction
Featherweight +107 / -120
Bolaji Oki VS Daniel Santos
45%55%
TOSS-UPWe predict Daniel Santos — 55% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 45%
Goes distance
45%
Median time
11:11
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Daniel Santos 54%
The model backs Daniel Santos at 55%, +1.7pp vs the sportsbook line (53%). Most likely by decision (45%).
Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos prediction
Lightweight -155 / +134
Kody Steele VS Noah Gugnon
54%46%
TOSS-UPWe predict Kody Steele — 54% confidentlive · Polymarket
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Most likely
SUB · 38%
Goes distance
33%
Median time
7:41
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Kody Steele 57%
The model backs Kody Steele at 54%, -4.4pp vs the sportsbook line (59%). Most likely by submission (38%).
Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon prediction
Women's Strawweight -345 / +300
Iasmin Lucindo VS Nicolle Caliari
84%16%
LOCKWe predict Iasmin Lucindo — 84% confidentlive · Polymarket
Tap for the read
Most likely
DEC · 60%
Goes distance
60%
Median time
12:36
Live · Polymarket 20 Oct 10:51 UTC
Iasmin Lucindo 76%
The model backs Iasmin Lucindo at 84%, +8.5pp vs the sportsbook line (76%). Most likely by decision (60%).
Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari prediction

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