Sergei Pavlovich vs Josh Hokit — fantasy matchup

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Sergei Pavlovich 49% Josh Hokit 51%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Josh Hokit at 51% — close enough to be a coin toss — there is no meaningful separation between them.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Josh Hokit — 51% on the first, 58% on the second, 7 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 41%.

KO/TKO

62%

Submission

Decision

29%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Sergei Pavlovich vs Josh Hokit — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 9-3	UFC record	UFC 4-0
21-3	Pro record	10-0
6' 3"	Height	6' 1"
84"▲	Reach	73"
Southpaw	Stance	Orthodox
34	Age	28
257 lbs.	Weight	235 lbs.
Russia	Nationality	United States
Orlovsky, Rostov Oblast, Russia	Born in	Bakersfield, California, United States
Moscow, Russia	Fights out of	Clovis, California, United States
Eagles MMA	Camp	Jackson-Wink MMA

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Sergei Pavlovich (left) vs Josh Hokit (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

4.49

9.29

Striking accuracy

44%

64%

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

5.28

Striking defence

56%

48%

Takedowns / 15 min

0.47

3.73

Takedown accuracy

25%

47%

Takedown defence

75%

77%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.4

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Sergei Pavlovich and Josh Hokit have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Change either fighter: Sergei Pavlovich vs Josh Hokit in Build your own → Sergei Pavlovich — record, tape and career → Josh Hokit — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

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