Fight day. UFC Vegas 120, also billed UFC Fight Night 284, runs Saturday at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Twelve fights, all with real betting-market odds behind them.
Two picks are flagged, both HIGH. Nothing reached LOCK.
Alexia Thainara, 75.5% over Amanda Lemos, by decision.
Ty Miller, 73.2% over Billy Ray Goff, by KO/TKO.
One housekeeping note that matters today: two Millers. Ty Miller is flagged HIGH. Juliana Miller, 65.8% over Ravena Oliveira by decision, is not flagged.
The rest, none flagged. Quillan Salkilld 65.9% over Mateusz Gamrot in the main event, by decision. Yadier Del Valle 64.1% over Darren Elkins, by decision. Manoel Sousa 61.9% over Richie Miranda, by KO/TKO. Steven Asplund 60.0% over Guilherme Pat, by decision.
Carol Foro 59.6% over Gigi Canuto, by decision. Diego Ferreira 58.3% over Billy Quarantillo, by decision. Diyar Nurgozhay 57.9% over Bruno Lopes, by KO/TKO. Jose Montanha 55.5% over Louie Sutherland, by KO/TKO.
The tightest read on the card is Miles Johns at 53.4% over Gianni Vazquez, by decision. Vazquez took the fight at featherweight after Jessie Rosas withdrew. He is 0-1 in the UFC, a unanimous-decision loss to Javid Basharat on Feb. 7, 2026.
Elkins, 42, fights for the 31st and final time. He confirmed at media day that he is retiring. Our model picks against him and does not flag the pick.
One carry-over from last weekend. In Belgrade the model went 10 of 14 on winners and 3 of 14 on method, its second weak method card in a row after 8 of 12 on July 18 and 8 of 14 on July 12. We are watching the method column tonight.
No result is claimed here. These are pre-fight numbers, published before the card, and they will be graded against what actually happens.