Twelve of the 14 fights at UFC Belgrade ended inside the distance Aug. 1, and 10 of those ended in the first round.
Uros Medic stopped Daniel Rodriguez by KO/TKO in round one.
Our model went 10 of 14 on winners. It went 3 of 14 on method.
Those two numbers came from the same card, which is the part worth sitting with. Picking who wins and picking how are different problems, and Belgrade separated them about as cleanly as a card can.
The method figure is the low point of a short run rather than a standing weakness. On July 25 the model went 5 of 12 on method. On July 18 it went 8 of 12, level with its winner count that night. On July 12 it went 8 of 14.
The sequence reads 8, 8, 5, 3. Two poor cards in a row after two solid ones. We are not offering a cause for it, because we do not have one that survives scrutiny, and a plausible-sounding explanation invented after the fact is worse than an admission.
What we can say is that a card where 10 fights end in the first round is a hard card for any method model. Early finishes compress the signal. That is an observation, and it does not explain July 25.
The winner side held up. Ten of 14 on a card that violent is a reasonable night, and it is the number that carries most of what our readers use.
Attention now moves to Las Vegas. UFC Vegas 120, also billed UFC Fight Night 284, runs Saturday at the UFC APEX with 12 fights, all of them carrying real betting-market odds.
Our model flags two of them. Alexia Thainara sits at 75.5% over Amanda Lemos, most likely by decision. Ty Miller sits at 73.2% over Billy Ray Goff, most likely by KO/TKO. Both are HIGH reads. No fight on the card reached LOCK.
Careful with the names on that card: Ty Miller is the flagged one. Juliana Miller, at 65.8% over Ravena Oliveira, is not flagged.
Mateusz Gamrot meets Quillan Salkilld in the main event, where our model has Salkilld at 65.9% by decision, unflagged.
Darren Elkins fights for the 31st and final time Saturday. He confirmed his retirement at fight-week media day. Our model picks against him, giving Yadier Del Valle 64.1%, and that pick is not flagged either.
Given the week just gone, the method reads for Saturday are worth watching as much as the winners.