FightIQ's model flagged six of the 11 UFC 330 bouts it modeled, four of them at LOCK, the top tier. That ties the most LOCKs the model has ever issued on one card.
Tonight's card in Philadelphia lists 12 fights. One of them, Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin at catchweight, carries no model read, and no number is published for it.
An internal check found four LOCKs has happened six times before. The card is at the top of the model's range, and it has been there before. The count was checked before publication.
Flagged, LOCK:
- Mansur Abdul-Malik, 80.4% over Dustin Stoltzfus, most likely by KO/TKO. Highest number on the card.
- Donte Johnson, 77.2% over Eric McConico, by decision.
- Myktybek Orolbai, 76.6% over Jeremiah Wells, by decision.
- Esteban Ribovics, 73.5% over Edson Barboza, by decision.
Flagged, HIGH:
- Joel Alvarez, 76.8% over Chidi Njokuani, by KO/TKO.
- Islam Makhachev, 68.3% over Ian Machado Garry, by decision. Five-round main event.
Not flagged:
- Vicente Luque, 66.5% over Tresean Gore, by KO/TKO.
- Lucas Fernando, 58.6% over Rafael Tobias, by KO/TKO.
- Neil Magny, 57.4% over Ramiz Brahimaj, by submission.
- Mackenzie Dern, 53.5% over Gillian Robertson, by decision. Second title fight, five rounds.
- Kaue Fernandes, 52.1% over Jalin Turner, by KO/TKO.
No model read:
- Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin, catchweight.
All four LOCKs are on the undercard. The flagged main event is the lowest of the six flagged numbers, so the model's conviction again sits away from the biggest fights.
The two title fights land on opposite sides of the line. The main event is flagged HIGH. The second title fight is not flagged.
Two picks are near even. Dern is at 53.5% and Kaue Fernandes is at 52.1%.
One data gap. Lucas Fernando has no prior UFC fight in FightIQ's dataset, so that read leans on the betting market instead of fight history.
Across a validated cohort of 80 flagged LOCK picks, the LOCK label has hit 91.2%, by FightIQ's own measurement. That is a past record on that cohort. It is not a forecast for tonight.
All 11 modeled fights have market odds attached. FightIQ publishes probabilities and tiers and makes no recommendation about wagering.