Islam Makhachev won a unanimous decision over five rounds in the main event of UFC 330 last Saturday in Philadelphia. Our model called the card at 6 of 11.
The Aug. 15 show at Xfinity Mobile Arena ran 11 bouts we modelled. Both title fights went the full five rounds to unanimous decisions, and we had the winner in each.
We had Makhachev at 68.3%, a HIGH flag. Mackenzie Dern took the second title fight, also by unanimous decision. We had Dern at 53.5% and did not flag her, which puts that call closer to a coin flip than a read.
We issued four LOCK picks on this card, tied for the most we have ever put on a single event. Two won and two lost.
Donte Johnson, our 77.2% LOCK, won by KO/TKO in the first round. Esteban Ribovics, at 73.5%, won by KO/TKO in the second.
The other two went the other way. Mansur Abdul-Malik carried the highest number on the card at 80.4% and lost to Dustin Stoltzfus by submission in Round 2. Myktybek Orolbai, at 76.6%, lost to Jeremiah Wells by submission in Round 3.
Our one other flagged pick, HIGH on Joel Alvarez at 76.8%, also lost. Chidi Njokuani won by unanimous decision.
Flagged picks finished 3 of 6 on the night. We have written a separate autopsy on that, because we published a LOCK-tier track record in our preview for this card and it deserves an answer.
Away from the flags, Lucas Fernando won by KO/TKO in the third round. He was the one fighter on the card with no UFC data behind him, so the model had little to work with and we left him unflagged. Neil Magny won by KO/TKO in the second, also unflagged.
Two more calls missed. Kaue Fernandes lost to Jalin Turner by KO/TKO in the first round. Vicente Luque lost to Tresean Gore by unanimous decision.
Method, which is how a fight ends rather than who wins, landed at 4 of 11. That column has now been the weak one for four cards running: 5 of 12 on July 25, 3 of 14 on Aug. 1, 5 of 12 on Aug. 8 and 4 of 11 here. We do not have a cause to give you for it.
One card ago, at UFC Vegas 120 on Aug. 8, we picked all 12 winners. Six days later we picked 6 of 11. Neither number tells you much on its own.