Quillan Salkilld submitted Mateusz Gamrot with a rear-naked choke in the first round of the UFC Vegas 120 main event on Aug. 8.
The win was reported as the biggest of Salkilld's career and as the performance that establishes him as a serious lightweight contender.
Salkilld stifled Gamrot's grappling before finding the finish.
Our model had Salkilld at 65.9%, which made him the pick. It had the fight going to a decision.
A 65.9% read means the model expected Salkilld to win roughly two times in three. It carried no expectation that the fight would be short.
The model got the winner and missed the method. A first-round rear-naked choke is a long way from a fight that reaches the judges.
We publish these numbers before cards so they can be checked afterwards, including when half the read is wrong.
Salkilld's win came on the same card where Darren Elkins retired. Elkins was stopped 35 seconds into his fight.
Beating a main-event opponent by first-round submission is a result that speaks for itself. The contender framing came from the reporting rather than from our numbers.