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Picks · Head-to-head ·

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

Lightweight · 3 rounds · Volkanovski vs Evloev
UFC 12-2 (1 draw/NC) · Pro 24-3-1
Red corner
VS
UFC 4-0 · Pro 12-0
Blue corner

The prediction

Our pick, its confidence, the method read and the time we published it are on the bout’s own page — the one URL that carries the prediction before the fight and the graded result after it.

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev prediction →

Tale of the tape

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 12-2 (1 draw/NC)UFC recordUFC 4-0
24-3-1Pro record12-0
KGDNicknameTajik Eagle
5' 10"Height5' 10"
72"Reach72"
SwitchStanceOrthodox
32Age25
155 lbs.Weight155 lbs.
United StatesNationalityTajikistan
Cambria, Wisconsin, United StatesBorn inDushanbe, Tajikistan
Coconut Creek, Florida, United StatesFights out ofDushanbe, Tajikistan
American Top TeamCamp—
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

FightIQ Metrics

Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.

Grant DawsonNurullo Aliev
70
Striking
48
52
Defence
75
72
Grappling / TD
66
70
Cardio
44
48
Chin
79
62
Fight IQ
62
Our read — derived, not official stats. Ranked within weight class.

Strike zones

Strike zones

Where they go — head to head

Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Grant Dawson15 UFC fights · 528 landed

68.6%
HEAD
82.2%
18.9%
BODY
13.6%
12.5%
LEGS
4.2%

Nurullo Aliev4 UFC fights · 118 landed

Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Stat-by-stat

Grant Dawson (left) vs Nurullo Aliev (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
3.14
vs
2.29
Striking accuracy
51%
vs
44%
Strikes absorbed / min
2.14
vs
1.59
Striking defence
44%
vs
55%
Takedowns / 15 min
3.58
vs
3.48
Takedown accuracy
39%
vs
51%
Takedown defence
66%
vs
80%
Sub attempts / 15 min
1.4
vs
0.5
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Live market

The market line next to the live prediction-market price — information only, not a bet call.

Sportsbook line
Grant Dawson-125
Nurullo Aliev+110
Live · Polymarket
Grant Dawson52% · -111
Nurullo Aliev48% · +111
as of 2026-10-20T10:51:02Z · $9,865 liquidity. The implied chance is the market's number, not ours.

Go deeper

Want to compare two other fighters? Build your own head-to-head gives FightIQ’s hypothetical read on any two eligible fighters, with the tale of the tape and the stats side by side — labelled as a thought experiment and never graded. Our graded prediction is published only on a booked bout, timestamped before the cage door closes. For two ranked fighters who have never met, see the fantasy matchups.
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