11:56
median time
Lightweight · 3 rounds · UFC 333 (UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev) · 24 Oct 2026
FightIQ's read: Nurullo Aliev over Grant Dawson at 50% confidence — a coin-flip.
That read sits 3.9pp above the sportsbook line's implied 46% on Nurullo Aliev.
Most likely outcome: a decision at 57% (KO/TKO 26%, submission 16%, decision 57%) — a clear separation.
The model gives it a 57% chance of going the distance, with a projected median fight time around 11:56.
Live on Polymarket, Nurullo Aliev is priced around 48%.
One honest, calibrated confidence rating — the number is the signal.
Published 20 Oct 2026, 11:04 UTC — before the fight. Graded on this page after it.
Our record at this confidence: TOSS-UP picks are 42-43 (49.4%, n=85) in 2026. Every graded pick · How well our confidence is calibrated
Aliev is 6 years younger. With an age gap of 6 to 7 years, the younger fighter wins 60% of UFC fights (638 of 1,059 fights).
Aliev comes in on a 4-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 58% of the time (368 of 640 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The sportsbook line next to the live prediction-market prices — information only. Each bar is the two sides' share of one certain outcome.
What the market has done since it opened — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Nurullo Aliev's implied chance drifted down from 48% to 48% (−1.0pp) over this window.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson — sportsbook consensus | 52.6% | 51.2% | 53.8% | 53.8% | +1.2pp |
| Nurullo Aliev — sportsbook consensus | 47.4% | 46.2% | 48.8% | 46.2% | −1.2pp |
| Grant Dawson — Polymarket | 51.5% | 50.5% | 54.0% | 52.5% | +1.0pp |
| Nurullo Aliev — Polymarket | 48.5% | 46.0% | 49.5% | 47.5% | −1.0pp |
The facts, side by side — Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev.
| UFC 12-2 (1 draw/NC) | UFC record | UFC 4-0 |
| 24-3-1 | Pro record | 12-0 |
| KGD | Nickname | Tajik Eagle |
| 5' 10" | Height | 5' 10" |
| 72" | Reach | 72" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 32 | Age | 25 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Tajikistan |
| Cambria, Wisconsin, United States | Born in | Dushanbe, Tajikistan |
| Coconut Creek, Florida, United States | Fights out of | Dushanbe, Tajikistan |
| American Top Team | Camp | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Grant Dawson15 UFC fights · 528 landed
Nurullo Aliev4 UFC fights · 118 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Grant Dawson
Nurullo Aliev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Grant Dawson (left) vs Nurullo Aliev (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 10" switch submission grappler campaigning at Lightweight. 12 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 5 submission, 5 decision.
5' 10" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Lightweight. 4 UFC wins — 4 decision.