Arman Tsarukyan vs Max Holloway — fantasy matchup

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Arman Tsarukyan 75% Max Holloway 25%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Arman Tsarukyan at 75% — a clear lean.

Our two reads agree on the winner but not on the margin. Both name Arman Tsarukyan — 75% on the first, 64% on the second, a gap of 11 points. The wider that gap, the less settled the read.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 57%.

Hypothetical run at Lightweight; Max Holloway fought mainly at Featherweight.

KO/TKO

25%

Submission

10%

Decision

64%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Arman Tsarukyan vs Max Holloway — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 11-2	UFC record	UFC 24-9
24-3	Pro record	28-9
Ahalkalakets	Nickname	Blessed
5' 7"	Height	5' 11"
72"▲	Reach	69"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
30	Age	34
155 lbs.	Weight	155 lbs.
Russia	Nationality	United States
Akhalkalaki, Georgia	Born in	Honolulu, Hawaii, United States
Yerevan, Armenia	Fights out of	Waiʻanae, Hawaii, United States
American Top Team	Camp	—

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Arman Tsarukyan (left) vs Max Holloway (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

3.78

6.92

Striking accuracy

49%

48%

Strikes absorbed / min

1.77

4.6

Striking defence

54%

58%

Takedowns / 15 min

3.25

0.22

Takedown accuracy

34%

53%

Takedown defence

75%

81%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.1

0.3

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Arman Tsarukyan and Max Holloway have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Change either fighter: Arman Tsarukyan vs Max Holloway in Build your own → Arman Tsarukyan — record, tape and career → Max Holloway — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

More Lightweight fantasy matchups

Justin Gaethje vs Arman Tsarukyan →Ilia Topuria vs Arman Tsarukyan →Ilia Topuria vs Paddy Pimblett →Arman Tsarukyan vs Paddy Pimblett →Charles Oliveira vs Paddy Pimblett →Max Holloway vs Paddy Pimblett →

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