Charles Oliveira vs Paddy Pimblett

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Charles Oliveira 39% Paddy Pimblett 61%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Paddy Pimblett at 61% — a lean, not a conviction.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Paddy Pimblett — 61% on the first, 54% on the second, 7 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 57%.

KO/TKO

25%

Submission

33%

Decision

42%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Charles Oliveira vs Paddy Pimblett — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 25-11 (1 draw/NC)	UFC record	UFC 8-1
37-11	Pro record	24-4
Do Bronxs	Nickname	The Baddy
5' 10"	Height	5' 10"
74"▲	Reach	73"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
37	Age	31
155 lbs.	Weight	155 lbs.
Brazil	Nationality	England
Guarujá, Brazil	Born in	Liverpool, Merseyside, England
Guarujá, São Paulo, Brazil	Fights out of	Liverpool, England
—	Camp	Next Generation MMA Liverpool

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Charles Oliveira (left) vs Paddy Pimblett (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

3.23

5.48

Striking accuracy

55%

52%

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

3.86

Striking defence

48%

42%

Takedowns / 15 min

2.29

0.68

Takedown accuracy

39%

21%

Takedown defence

54%

46%

Sub attempts / 15 min

2.6

1.4

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Charles Oliveira and Paddy Pimblett have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Change either fighter: Charles Oliveira vs Paddy Pimblett in Build your own → Charles Oliveira — record, tape and career → Paddy Pimblett — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

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