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FightIQ · The Lab · Correlations

Which fighter stats go with winning in the UFC?

Striking accuracy and strikes absorbed per minute have the strongest links to a fighter's UFC win rate (r = 0.28 and −0.26); submission attempts per 15 minutes have almost none (r = 0.00).

1,261 fighters with 5+ UFC fights · career numbers from the official UFC register · results to 17 October 2026

How to read these

Each chart splits fighters into six equal groups, from the lowest value of one stat to the highest, and plots how often each group won in the UFC. r runs from −1 to 1: 0 means no straight-line link at all, and anything under about 0.3 either way is a tendency, not a rule. The range after r is its 95% interval.

Striking accuracy

r = 0.28 (95%: 0.23 to 0.33) · 1,251 fighters
Striking accuracy against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest striking accuracy; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.40%45%50%55%60%65%70%20% to 38%: 48.9% of 2,074 fights34%38% to 42%: 52.9% of 2,446 fights40%42% to 45%: 52.9% of 2,444 fights44%45% to 48%: 55.0% of 2,490 fights47%48% to 52%: 59.8% of 2,399 fights50%52% to 83%: 63.0% of 2,132 fights56%% of significant strikes that land (group average)

One of the clearer links: fighters with higher striking accuracy tend to have the better UFC record.

Strikes absorbed per minute

r = −0.26 (95%: −0.32 to −0.21) · 1,251 fighters
Strikes absorbed per minute against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest strikes absorbed per minute; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.40%45%50%55%60%65%70%0.5 to 2.3: 62.7% of 2,127 fights1.92.3 to 2.9: 58.5% of 2,410 fights2.62.9 to 3.3: 54.1% of 2,405 fights3.13.3 to 3.8: 54.9% of 2,510 fights3.63.8 to 4.5: 53.5% of 2,379 fights4.14.5 to 8.4: 48.7% of 2,154 fights5.4significant strikes taken per minute (group average)

One of the clearer links: fighters with lower strikes absorbed per minute tend to have the better UFC record.

Takedown defence

r = 0.25 (95%: 0.20 to 0.30) · 1,251 fighters
Takedown defence against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest takedown defence; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.40%45%50%55%60%65%70%0% to 44%: 48.1% of 1,893 fights31%44% to 55%: 53.1% of 2,265 fights50%55% to 63%: 56.0% of 2,618 fights59%63% to 70%: 54.8% of 2,517 fights66%70% to 78%: 56.8% of 2,468 fights74%78% to 100%: 62.2% of 2,224 fights86%% of takedown attempts stopped (group average)

A modest link: fighters with higher takedown defence tend to have the better UFC record.

Takedowns per 15 minutes

r = 0.22 (95%: 0.17 to 0.27) · 1,251 fighters
Takedowns per 15 minutes against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest takedowns per 15 minutes; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.45%50%55%60%65%70%0.0 to 0.4: 52.4% of 2,083 fights0.20.4 to 0.8: 53.6% of 2,434 fights0.60.8 to 1.2: 53.3% of 2,347 fights1.01.2 to 1.8: 54.7% of 2,410 fights1.51.8 to 2.7: 56.1% of 2,417 fights2.22.7 to 8.2: 62.2% of 2,294 fights3.7takedowns landed per 15 minutes (group average)

A modest link: fighters with higher takedowns per 15 minutes tend to have the better UFC record.

Submission attempts per 15 minutes

r = 0.00 (95%: −0.05 to 0.06) · 1,251 fighters
Submission attempts per 15 minutes against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest submission attempts per 15 minutes; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.45%50%55%60%65%0.0 to 0.0: 51.3% of 1,994 fights0.00.0 to 0.2: 55.1% of 2,523 fights0.10.2 to 0.4: 57.5% of 2,378 fights0.30.4 to 0.7: 55.4% of 2,430 fights0.60.7 to 1.1: 57.4% of 2,430 fights0.91.1 to 7.4: 54.9% of 2,230 fights1.8attempts per 15 minutes (group average)

Almost no link: this stat says little about who wins.

Age at UFC debut

r = −0.15 (95%: −0.20 to −0.10) · 1,259 fighters
Age at UFC debut against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest age at ufc debut; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.45%50%55%60%65%18 to 24: 58.9% of 2,805 fights2324 to 26: 57.7% of 2,646 fights2526 to 27: 55.3% of 2,311 fights2727 to 29: 53.3% of 2,217 fights2829 to 31: 54.3% of 2,128 fights3031 to 38: 51.2% of 1,936 fights33years old at the first UFC fight (group average)

A weak link: fighters with lower age at UFC debut tend to have the better UFC record.

Reach

r = 0.07 (95%: 0.01 to 0.13) · 1,226 fighters
Reach against UFC win rate6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest reach; each dot is that group's UFC win rate with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.45%50%55%60%65%58 to 68: 55.0% of 2,189 fights6568 to 70: 54.3% of 2,196 fights6970 to 72: 53.6% of 2,207 fights7172 to 74: 56.3% of 2,286 fights7374 to 76: 55.1% of 2,431 fights7576 to 84: 57.7% of 2,485 fights78inches (group average)

A weak link: fighters with higher reach tend to have the better UFC record.

Age on fight night vs being knocked out

r = 0.10 (95%: 0.09 to 0.12) · 17,372 fighter-fights
Age on fight night vs being knocked out against knocked out6 groups of equal size from lowest to highest age on fight night vs being knocked out; each dot is that group's knocked out with a 95% range. The table under the charts carries every value.5%10%15%20%25%30%18 to 26: 12.5% of 2,895 fights2526 to 29: 12.9% of 2,895 fights2729 to 30: 15.9% of 2,896 fights2930 to 32: 16.3% of 2,895 fights3132 to 35: 19.3% of 2,895 fights3335 to 52: 22.9% of 2,896 fights37years old on fight night (group average)

Older fighters are knocked out more often: a weak link across every fight a fighter had, not a career average.

What this means

The career striking and grappling numbers are measured in the same fights they are being compared with, so a fighter who wins a lot will tend to have good numbers partly because they won. Read them as a description of what winners look like, not as a recipe.

Correlation is not causation. A link here says two things move together across fighters; it does not say that changing one would change the other.

The numbers

Striking accuracy

Group (% of significant strikes that land)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
20% to 38%2082,07448.9%46.7 to 51.0%
38% to 42%2092,44652.9%50.9 to 54.8%
42% to 45%2082,44452.9%50.9 to 54.8%
45% to 48%2092,49055.0%53.1 to 57.0%
48% to 52%2082,39959.8%57.8 to 61.7%
52% to 83%2092,13263.0%61.0 to 65.1%

Strikes absorbed per minute

Group (significant strikes taken per minute)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
0.5 to 2.32082,12762.7%60.6 to 64.7%
2.3 to 2.92092,41058.5%56.6 to 60.5%
2.9 to 3.32082,40554.1%52.1 to 56.1%
3.3 to 3.82092,51054.9%53.0 to 56.9%
3.8 to 4.52082,37953.5%51.5 to 55.5%
4.5 to 8.42092,15448.7%46.5 to 50.8%

Takedown defence

Group (% of takedown attempts stopped)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
0% to 44%2081,89348.1%45.8 to 50.3%
44% to 55%2092,26553.1%51.1 to 55.2%
55% to 63%2082,61856.0%54.1 to 57.9%
63% to 70%2092,51754.8%52.9 to 56.8%
70% to 78%2082,46856.8%54.9 to 58.8%
78% to 100%2092,22462.2%60.2 to 64.2%

Takedowns per 15 minutes

Group (takedowns landed per 15 minutes)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
0.0 to 0.42082,08352.4%50.3 to 54.6%
0.4 to 0.82092,43453.6%51.6 to 55.5%
0.8 to 1.22082,34753.3%51.3 to 55.3%
1.2 to 1.82092,41054.7%52.7 to 56.7%
1.8 to 2.72082,41756.1%54.1 to 58.0%
2.7 to 8.22092,29462.2%60.2 to 64.1%

Submission attempts per 15 minutes

Group (attempts per 15 minutes)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
0.0 to 0.02081,99451.3%49.1 to 53.5%
0.0 to 0.22092,52355.1%53.2 to 57.1%
0.2 to 0.42082,37857.5%55.5 to 59.5%
0.4 to 0.72092,43055.4%53.4 to 57.4%
0.7 to 1.12082,43057.4%55.5 to 59.4%
1.1 to 7.42092,23054.9%52.8 to 56.9%

Age at UFC debut

Group (years old at the first UFC fight)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
18 to 242092,80558.9%57.0 to 60.7%
24 to 262102,64657.7%55.9 to 59.6%
26 to 272102,31155.3%53.2 to 57.3%
27 to 292102,21753.3%51.2 to 55.4%
29 to 312102,12854.3%52.2 to 56.4%
31 to 382101,93651.2%49.0 to 53.4%

Reach

Group (inches)FightersFightsWin rate95% range
58 to 682042,18955.0%52.9 to 57.1%
68 to 702042,19654.3%52.2 to 56.4%
70 to 722052,20753.6%51.6 to 55.7%
72 to 742042,28656.3%54.2 to 58.3%
74 to 762042,43155.1%53.1 to 57.1%
76 to 842052,48557.7%55.8 to 59.6%

Age on fight night vs being knocked out

Group (years old on fight night)Fighter-fightsFightsKnocked out95% range
18 to 262,8952,89512.5%11.3 to 13.8%
26 to 292,8952,89512.9%11.7 to 14.2%
29 to 302,8962,89615.9%14.6 to 17.3%
30 to 322,8952,89516.3%15.0 to 17.7%
32 to 352,8952,89519.3%17.9 to 20.8%
35 to 522,8962,89622.9%21.4 to 24.5%

How we counted

Fighters with at least 5 UFC fights that had a winner, on the official UFC statistical record to 17 October 2026. A fighter's win rate is their UFC wins divided by those fights. The career rates (strikes, takedowns, submission attempts) and the physical measurements come from the official UFC register, one value per fighter; a fighter with no recorded UFC minutes has no rates and is left out of those charts, and names the register holds for two different fighters are left out of all of them. Age on fight night uses every fight with a winner, both corners, and asks whether that fighter was knocked out. Each group is one sixth of the fighters, so no group is smaller than 30.