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FightIQ · The Lab · Reach

Does reach matter in the UFC?

Yes: the fighter with the longer reach has won 59.5% of UFC fights where the reach gap was 7 inches or more, against 50.2% when it was 1 to 2 inches.

Headline: 59.5% of 375 fights, 95% range 54.4% to 64.3% · counted from 8,773 UFC fights with a winner, 11 March 1994 to 17 October 2026
Does reach matter in the UFC? How often the fighter with the longer reach won, row by rowEach row is a group of UFC fights; the dot is how often the fighter with the longer reach won, the whisker its 95% range, the dashed line 50%, a coin flip. Headline row: 59.5% of 375 fights. Rows under 30 fights are not drawn.40%50%60%70%80%50%, a coin flipThe rows the fight-page cards useReach gap of 1 to 2 inches: 50.2% of 3,414 fights (95% range 48.5 to 51.9%)Reach gap of 1 to 2 inches3,414 fights50.2%Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches: 53.1% of 2,007 fights (95% range 50.9 to 55.2%)Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches2,007 fights53.1%Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches: 54.1% of 902 fights (95% range 50.8 to 57.3%)Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches902 fights54.1%Reach gap of 7 inches or more: 59.5% of 375 fights (95% range 54.4 to 64.3%)Reach gap of 7 inches or more375 fights59.5%Inch by inch1 in: 50.3% of 1,822 fights (95% range 48.0 to 52.6%)1 in1,822 fights50.3%2 in: 50.1% of 1,592 fights (95% range 47.6 to 52.5%)2 in1,592 fights50.1%3 in: 51.9% of 1,204 fights (95% range 49.1 to 54.7%)3 in1,204 fights51.9%4 in: 54.8% of 803 fights (95% range 51.3 to 58.2%)4 in803 fights54.8%5 in: 51.2% of 551 fights (95% range 47.0 to 55.3%)5 in551 fights51.2%6 in: 58.7% of 351 fights (95% range 53.5 to 63.7%)6 in351 fights58.7%7 in: 54.5% of 198 fights (95% range 47.6 to 61.3%)7 in198 fights54.5%8 in: 64.1% of 92 fights (95% range 53.9 to 73.2%)8 in92 fights64.1%9+ in: 65.9% of 85 fights (95% range 55.3 to 75.1%)9+ in85 fights65.9%
Does reach matter in the UFC? How often the fighter with the longer reach won, row by rowEach row is a group of UFC fights; the dot is how often the fighter with the longer reach won, the whisker its 95% range, the dashed line 50%, a coin flip. Headline row: 59.5% of 375 fights. Rows under 30 fights are not drawn.40%50%60%70%80%50%, a coin flipThe rows the fight-page cards useReach gap of 1 to 2 inches: 50.2% of 3,414 fights (95% range 48.5 to 51.9%)Reach gap of 1 to 2 inches3,414 fights50.2%Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches: 53.1% of 2,007 fights (95% range 50.9 to 55.2%)Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches2,007 fights53.1%Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches: 54.1% of 902 fights (95% range 50.8 to 57.3%)Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches902 fights54.1%Reach gap of 7 inches or more: 59.5% of 375 fights (95% range 54.4 to 64.3%)Reach gap of 7 inches or more375 fights59.5%Inch by inch1 in: 50.3% of 1,822 fights (95% range 48.0 to 52.6%)1 in1,822 fights50.3%2 in: 50.1% of 1,592 fights (95% range 47.6 to 52.5%)2 in1,592 fights50.1%3 in: 51.9% of 1,204 fights (95% range 49.1 to 54.7%)3 in1,204 fights51.9%4 in: 54.8% of 803 fights (95% range 51.3 to 58.2%)4 in803 fights54.8%5 in: 51.2% of 551 fights (95% range 47.0 to 55.3%)5 in551 fights51.2%6 in: 58.7% of 351 fights (95% range 53.5 to 63.7%)6 in351 fights58.7%7 in: 54.5% of 198 fights (95% range 47.6 to 61.3%)7 in198 fights54.5%8 in: 64.1% of 92 fights (95% range 53.9 to 73.2%)8 in92 fights64.1%9+ in: 65.9% of 85 fights (95% range 55.3 to 75.1%)9+ in85 fights65.9%
How often the fighter with the longer reach won, with a 95% range on every row. filled: clear of the dashed linehollow: could be chanceRows resting on fewer than 30 fights are not drawn.

What this means for a fight

A reach gap of an inch or two is noise: those fights split down the middle. The advantage only starts to show once the gap is several inches, and even then the longer-armed fighter loses a good share of those fights.

Correlation is not causation. A long reach travels with other things: longer fighters tend to be taller and are often the bigger man in the division, so these rows compare fighters who differ in more than arm length.

The latest fights in the headline row

The most recent UFC fights counted in the headline row (7 inches or more).

The numbers

The rows the fight-page cards use

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
Reach gap of 1 to 2 inches3,41450.2%48.5 to 51.9%
Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches2,00753.1%50.9 to 55.2%
Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches90254.1%50.8 to 57.3%
Reach gap of 7 inches or more (headline)37559.5%54.4 to 64.3%

Inch by inch

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
1 in1,82250.3%48.0 to 52.6%
2 in1,59250.1%47.6 to 52.5%
3 in1,20451.9%49.1 to 54.7%
4 in80354.8%51.3 to 58.2%
5 in55151.2%47.0 to 55.3%
6 in35158.7%53.5 to 63.7%
7 in19854.5%47.6 to 61.3%
8 in9264.1%53.9 to 73.2%
9+ in8565.9%55.3 to 75.1%

Has it held over time? (7 inches or more)

YearsFightsWin rate95% range
1994 to 20052fewer than 30 fights, too few to call
2006 to 201513361.7%53.2 to 69.5%
2016 to today24057.9%51.6 to 64.0%

How we counted

Every UFC bout on the official statistical record from 11 March 1994 to 17 October 2026 that had a winner. Draws, no-contests and overturned results are left out of every count. Reach is the fighter's current listed reach on the official UFC register, one value per fighter applied to every past bout; bouts where either reach is missing or the two are equal are left out.

Anything built from a fighter's history (debuts, runs, breaks, previous meetings) only looks at UFC bouts dated before the fight, and leaves out the few names the register holds for two different fighters. A row needs at least 30 fights to be drawn or quoted; smaller rows are listed as too few to call. The 95% range is a Wilson interval: where the true rate probably sits, given how many fights there are.