Carlos Ulberg vs Alex Pereira — fantasy matchup

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Carlos Ulberg 51% Alex Pereira 49%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Carlos Ulberg at 51% — close enough to be a coin toss — there is no meaningful separation between them.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Carlos Ulberg — 51% on the first, 55% on the second, 4 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 39%.

KO/TKO

53%

Submission

10%

Decision

37%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Carlos Ulberg vs Alex Pereira — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 10-1	UFC record	UFC 10-3
15-1	Pro record	13-4
Black Jag	Nickname	Poatan
6' 4"	Height	6' 4"
77"	Reach	▲79"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
35	Age	39
205 lbs.	Weight	251 lbs.
New Zealand	Nationality	Brazil
Auckland, New Zealand	Born in	São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo, Brazil
Auckland, New Zealand	Fights out of	Danbury, Connecticut, United States
City Kickboxing	Camp	Teixeira MMA & Fitness

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Carlos Ulberg (left) vs Alex Pereira (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

6.57

5.01

Striking accuracy

55%

61%

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

3.72

Striking defence

51%

52%

Takedowns / 15 min

0.53

0.11

Takedown accuracy

60%

50%

Takedown defence

85%

80%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.2

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Carlos Ulberg and Alex Pereira have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Change either fighter: Carlos Ulberg vs Alex Pereira in Build your own → Carlos Ulberg — record, tape and career → Alex Pereira — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

More Light Heavyweight fantasy matchups

Carlos Ulberg vs Magomed Ankalaev →Magomed Ankalaev vs Jiri Prochazka →Magomed Ankalaev vs Khalil Rountree Jr. →Magomed Ankalaev vs Navajo Stirling →Alex Pereira vs Navajo Stirling →Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Navajo Stirling →

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