Ian Machado Garry vs Gabriel Bonfim

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Ian Machado Garry 40% Gabriel Bonfim 60%

Run as an unbooked fight, this one splits our two reads — they do not name the same winner, so there is no lean here to give you.

Our two reads disagree. One leans Gabriel Bonfim at 60%; the other leans Ian Machado Garry at 54%. When they split like this there is no read worth having — treat it as a coin toss.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 49%.

KO/TKO

30%

Submission

13%

Decision

58%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Ian Machado Garry vs Gabriel Bonfim — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 10-2	UFC record	UFC 7-1
17-2	Pro record	20-1
—	Nickname	Marretinha
6' 3"	Height	6' 1"
74"▲	Reach	72"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
28	Age	29
170 lbs.	Weight	170 lbs.
—	Nationality	Brazil
Portmarnock, Dublin, Ireland	Born in	Brasília, Brazil
Dublin, Ireland	Fights out of	Brasília, Brazil
—	Camp	Bonfim Brothers

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Ian Machado Garry (left) vs Gabriel Bonfim (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

4.29

4.76

Striking accuracy

53%

47%

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

3.61

Striking defence

52%

64%

Takedowns / 15 min

0.8

2.57

Takedown accuracy

31%

53%

Takedown defence

71%

78%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.3

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Ian Machado Garry and Gabriel Bonfim have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Change either fighter: Ian Machado Garry vs Gabriel Bonfim in Build your own → Ian Machado Garry — record, tape and career → Gabriel Bonfim — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

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