Islam Makhachev vs Carlos Prates — fantasy matchup

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Islam Makhachev 57% Carlos Prates 43%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Islam Makhachev at 57% — a lean, not a conviction.

Our two reads agree on the winner but not on the margin. Both name Islam Makhachev — 57% on the first, 70% on the second, a gap of 13 points. The wider that gap, the less settled the read.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 44%.

Hypothetical run at Welterweight; Islam Makhachev fought mainly at Lightweight.

KO/TKO

31%

Submission

29%

Decision

40%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Islam Makhachev vs Carlos Prates — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 18-1	UFC record	UFC 7-1
29-1	Pro record	24-7
—	Nickname	The Nightmare
5' 10"	Height	6' 1"
70"	Reach	▲78"
Southpaw	Stance	Switch
34	Age	33
170 lbs.	Weight	170 lbs.
Russia	Nationality	Brazil
Makhachkala, Dagestan ASSR, Russian SFSR, Soviet Union	Born in	Taubaté, São Paulo, Brazil
Makhachkala, Dagestan, Russia	Fights out of	Taubaté, Brazil

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Islam Makhachev (left) vs Carlos Prates (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

2.27

4.41

Striking accuracy

58%

54%

Strikes absorbed / min

1.42

4.3

Striking defence

61%

47%

Takedowns / 15 min

3.22

0.18

Takedown accuracy

54%

100%

Takedown defence

91%

77%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.9

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Islam Makhachev and Carlos Prates have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Change either fighter: Islam Makhachev vs Carlos Prates in Build your own → Islam Makhachev — record, tape and career → Carlos Prates — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

More Welterweight fantasy matchups

Islam Makhachev vs Michael Morales →Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Morales →Ian Machado Garry vs Jack Della Maddalena →Ian Machado Garry vs Gabriel Bonfim →Carlos Prates vs Michael Morales →Carlos Prates vs Gabriel Bonfim →Michael Morales vs Jack Della Maddalena →

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