Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Morales

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Ian Machado Garry 31% Michael Morales 69%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Michael Morales at 69% — a clear lean.

Our two reads agree on the winner but not on the margin. Both name Michael Morales — 69% on the first, 58% on the second, a gap of 11 points. The wider that gap, the less settled the read.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 49%.

KO/TKO

46%

Submission

Decision

46%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Morales — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 10-2	UFC record	UFC 7-0
17-2	Pro record	19-0
6' 3"	Height	6' 0"
74"	Reach	▲79"
Orthodox	Stance	Orthodox
28	Age	27
170 lbs.	Weight	170 lbs.
—	Nationality	Ecuador
Portmarnock, Dublin, Ireland	Born in	Pasaje, El Oro, Ecuador
Dublin, Ireland	Fights out of	Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico
—	Camp	Entram Gym

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality and camp from the public fighter register. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Ian Machado Garry (left) vs Michael Morales (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

4.29

5.68

Striking accuracy

53%

49%

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

3.26

Striking defence

52%

53%

Takedowns / 15 min

0.8

1.04

Takedown accuracy

31%

41%

Takedown defence

71%

89%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.3

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Ian Machado Garry and Michael Morales have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Change either fighter: Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Morales in Build your own → Ian Machado Garry — record, tape and career → Michael Morales — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

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