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Do home fighters win more often in the UFC?

Name: Do home fighters win more often in the UFC?
Creator: FightIQ
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In UFC bouts with exactly one fighter from the host country, the home fighter won 51% of 3,328 bouts. At events outside the US the figure is 60% (1,035 bouts); at US events it is 47% (2,293 bouts), a gap of 13 points.

How often the fighter from the host country wins, when exactly one of the two is local.

Source: FightIQ's cleaned copy of the official UFC fight record, fighter nationality from Sherdog, and event locations · n = 3,328 bouts · 11 March 1994 to 3 October 2026 · data as of 18 October 2026

Read this carefullyHome-country fighters at events in the US win less often than at events abroad (46.8% vs 59.5%). Read this carefully: at US events the visiting (non-US) fighters are a selected group, a fighter has to be good to be booked abroad, so the US figure is not a clean measure of home advantage. Descriptive only.

Correlation is not causation. Home fighters are not a random sample: at US events, for example, the visiting fighters are a selected group.

Descriptive only. This page describes past UFC results; it is not a forecast.

Home fighter win rate, by host country

Every host country with at least one qualifying bout, most bouts first. Years show the first and last qualifying bout.

win rate · the thin line marks an even split · small sample

United States1994 to 2026

47%

2,293 bouts

Brazil1998 to 2025

67%

306 bouts

Canada2008 to 2026

55%

191 bouts

United Kingdom2002 to 2026

60%

176 bouts

Australia2010 to 2026

53%

125 bouts

Japan1997 to 2017

43%

44 bouts

Mexico2014 to 2026

64%

44 bouts

Francesmall sample2022 to 2026

81%

26 bouts

Russiasmall sample2018 to 2019

63%

24 bouts

Swedensmall sample2012 to 2019

38%

16 bouts

Germanysmall sample2009 to 2018

54%

13 bouts

Polandsmall sample2015 to 2017

46%

13 bouts

South Koreasmall sample2015 to 2019

67%

9 bouts

Irelandsmall sample2009 to 2015

71%

7 bouts

United Arab Emiratessmall sample2020 to 2025

57%

7 bouts

New Zealandsmall sample2017 to 2020

100%

6 bouts

Azerbaijansmall sample2025 to 2026

60%

5 bouts

Netherlandssmall sample2016 to 2017

75%

4 bouts

Serbiasmall sample2026

50%

4 bouts

Argentinasmall sample2018

50%

2 bouts

Chinasmall sample2014 to 2018

50%

2 bouts

Croatiasmall sample2016

2 bouts

Denmarksmall sample2019

100%

2 bouts

Philippinessmall sample2015

2 bouts

Chilesmall sample2018

1 bout

Czech Republicsmall sample2019

1 bout

Puerto Ricosmall sample1996

1 bout

Singaporesmall sample2014

100%

1 bout

Uruguaysmall sample2019

100%

1 bout

Hosts with no home bouts

These countries hosted UFC events, but no bout had exactly one local fighter with a known nationality. The figure is the number of qualifying bouts.

Saudi Arabia

2 events

Qatar

1 event

What counts. A bout counts when exactly one of the two fighters holds the nationality of the country hosting the event. Bouts where a fighter’s nationality or the host country is unknown are left out. Small samples. Countries with fewer than 30 bouts are greyed and marked small sample. They are shown, not dropped. Countries listed under “no home bouts” hosted events, but no bout there had exactly one local fighter with a known nationality.

More context facts

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