Anheliger vs Koslow prediction: Koslow won, called at 72%

Red corner ChadAnheliger“The Monster”Champion's Creed MMA · Hometown (per Sherdog): Consort, Alberta

VSSettled

Blue corner StevenKoslow“Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow”10th Planet Jiu Jitsu Jacksonville · Hometown (per Sherdog): Jacksonville, Florida

Bantamweight3 rounds17 Oct 2026

The story going in

5 UFC bouts deep — 4 more than Koslow.
Averages 4.6 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Anheliger.
Carries 38 points more takedown defence than Koslow.

13-9

Record

7-1

39

Age

−10 yr29

5' 6"

Height

+1″5' 7"

64″

Reach

+5″69″

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

+45

UFC bouts

1

Champion's Creed MMA

Gym

10th Planet Jiu Jitsu Jacksonville

Consort, Albertahometown, per Sherdog

From

Jacksonville, Floridahometown, per Sherdog

Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call

Steven Koslow

72.0% confidentHIGH

Method calledDEC 52%

Vs the market+11.3pp

Market had our pick at61%

The fight

Steven Koslow

WIN✗

How it endedSUB

Round3 of 3

Clock4:31

Called it We called Steven Koslow at 72.0% and Steven Koslow won. The method call missed.

Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

By the numbers

Age
Koslow is 10 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 70% of UFC fights (353 of 508 fights).
How we know: Age in UFC history →

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action

Chad Anheliger13 sig landed

Steven Koslow15 sig landed

13 of 18

Sig.
strikes

15 of 24

0 of 0

Take-
downs

1 of 1

0:00

Control

2:46

0

Sub
attempts

0

Distance 11Clinch 2Ground 0

Where it
happened

Distance 9Clinch 0Ground 6

Round 25:00 of action1 sub attempt

Chad Anheliger12 sig landed

Steven Koslow20 sig landed

12 of 21

Sig.
strikes

20 of 34

0 of 0

Take-
downs

2 of 2

0:12

Control

2:01

0

Sub
attempts

1

Distance 11Clinch 1Ground 0

Where it
happened

Distance 16Clinch 0Ground 4

Round 34:31 of action1 sub attemptEnded 4:31

Chad Anheliger9 sig landed

Steven Koslow16 sig landed

9 of 20

Sig.
strikes

16 of 30

0 of 0

Take-
downs

1 of 1

0:00

Control

2:10

0

Sub
attempts

1

Distance 9Clinch 0Ground 0

Where it
happened

Distance 15Clinch 0Ground 1

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Steven Koslow

Round

3

Clock

4:31

Method

SUB

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Mike Tubbs.

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Chad Anheliger

0.68 / 15m

TAKEDOWNS

5.28 / 15m

2.27 / 15m

ATTEMPTS

9.60 / 15m

30%

ACCURACY

55%

0.50 / 15m

SUB ATT

1.10 / 15m

Steven Koslow

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Bantamweight

The market story

What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.

Chad AnheligerSteven KoslowPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)

From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Steven Koslow's implied chance moved up from 59% to 62% (+2.5pp).

This series stops at Oct 17 22:01Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.

Our published call had Steven Koslow at 72.0%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 61.5% — our number sat 10.5pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.

Show the numbers

Series	Open	Low	High	Last pre-fight	Move
Chad Anheliger — sportsbook consensus	54.3%	39.2%	54.3%	39.2%	−15.0pp
Steven Koslow — sportsbook consensus	45.7%	45.7%	60.8%	60.8%	+15.0pp
Chad Anheliger — Polymarket	41.0%	38.5%	52.5%	38.5%	−2.5pp
Steven Koslow — Polymarket	59.0%	47.5%	61.5%	61.5%	+2.5pp

Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,099 snapshots on file · window Oct 10 06:11–Oct 17 21:51Z · last capture Oct 17, 21:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.