Round 1⚡ 2 KD Mahjoub
46 of 85
Sig.
strikes
strikes
19 of 29
1 of 3
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
1:36
Control
0:00
2
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 23Clinch 6Ground 17
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 18Clinch 1Ground 0
Red corner
JavadMahjoubAlavanca Calgary · Born in Chenaran, Iran · Fights out of Montreal, Quebec, Canada
VSSettled
5-1
Record
7-0
35
Age
−10 yr25
6' 1"
Height
+1″6' 2"
+3″76″
Reach
73″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alavanca Calgary
Gym
Faglier's Mixed Martial Arts
Montreal, Quebec, Canadafights out of
From
Augusta, Georgiahometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Joel Faglier
54.4% confident
The fight
Joel Faglier
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
UFC debut
UFC debut for both.
Age
Faglier is 9 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (413 of 634 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 2Ended 2:11
14 of 29
Sig.
strikes
strikes
32 of 47
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
0:02
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 14Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 26Clinch 2Ground 4
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Joel Faglier
Round
2
Clock
2:11
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Javad MahjoubJoel FaglierPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Joel Faglier's implied chance moved up from 49% to 55% (+5.5pp).
This series stops at Oct 17 22:41Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Joel Faglier at 54.4%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 54.5% — our number sat 0.1pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javad Mahjoub — sportsbook consensus | 52.4% | 45.5% | 52.4% | 45.9% | −6.5pp |
| Joel Faglier — sportsbook consensus | 47.6% | 47.6% | 54.5% | 54.1% | +6.5pp |
| Javad Mahjoub — Polymarket | 51.0% | 44.5% | 52.0% | 45.5% | −5.5pp |
| Joel Faglier — Polymarket | 49.0% | 48.0% | 55.5% | 54.5% | +5.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 862 snapshots on file · window Oct 11 22:11–Oct 17 22:31Z · last capture Oct 17, 22:31Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.