What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Galanti’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 1 UFC fight. Debutants facing an opponent with 1 to 3 UFC fights win 42% of the time (413 of 978 fights).
Galanti is 6 years younger. With an age gap of 6 to 7 years, the younger fighter wins 60% of UFC fights (637 of 1,058 fights).
History leans Leblanc on 1 of these; our model picked Galanti.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
1 round of tape
No significant strikes landed — 1 thrown
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Nick Galanti
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jerin Valel.
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Nick Galanti's implied chance moved up from 50% to 86% (+35.5pp).
This series stops at Oct 17 23:01Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Nick Galanti at 85.9%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 85.5% — our number sat 0.4pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julien Leblanc — sportsbook consensus | 18.1% | 14.2% | 18.1% | 14.2% | −3.9pp |
| Nick Galanti — sportsbook consensus | 81.9% | 81.9% | 85.8% | 85.8% | +3.9pp |
| Julien Leblanc — Polymarket | 50.0% | 13.5% | 50.0% | 14.5% | −35.5pp |
| Nick Galanti — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 86.5% | 85.5% | +35.5pp |