Round 11 sub attemptEnded 4:52
12 of 27
Sig.
strikes
strikes
11 of 29
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 3
1:16
Control
2:14
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 3Clinch 9Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 7Ground 0
Red corner
ChelseaChandlerCesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu · Born in Stockton, California, United States · Fights out of Stockton, California, United States
VSSettled
The story going in
- Has finished 2 of 3 UFC wins.
- Carries 41 points more takedown defence than Chandler.
8-4
Record
8-4
35
Age
35
5' 8"
Height
+1″5' 9"
68″
Reach
68″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
+36
UFC bouts
3
2/367% of wins
Finishes
1/250% of wins
Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
Gym
Raven House MMA
Stockton, California, United Statesfights out of
From
Crowsnest Pass, Albertahometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Melissa Croden
80.0% confidentLOCK
The fight
Chelsea Chandler
LOSS✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Chelsea Chandler
Round
1
Clock
4:52
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Andy Social.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Chelsea Chandler
0.81 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
2.02 / 15m
1.35 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
4.04 / 15m
60%
ACCURACY
50%
0.30 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.30 / 15m
25%
TD DEFENCE
66%
Melissa Croden
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Women's Bantamweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Chelsea ChandlerMelissa CrodenPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Melissa Croden's implied chance moved up from 72% to 76% (+5.0pp).
This series stops at Oct 17 21:41Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Melissa Croden at 80.0%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 76.5% — our number sat 3.5pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Chandler — sportsbook consensus | 31.5% | 25.7% | 31.6% | 25.7% | −5.7pp |
| Melissa Croden — sportsbook consensus | 68.5% | 68.4% | 74.3% | 74.3% | +5.7pp |
| Chelsea Chandler — Polymarket | 28.5% | 23.5% | 30.5% | 23.5% | −5.0pp |
| Melissa Croden — Polymarket | 71.5% | 69.5% | 76.5% | 76.5% | +5.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,096 snapshots on file · window Oct 10 06:11–Oct 17 21:31Z · last capture Oct 17, 21:31Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.