Round 1⚡ 1 KD CerminaraEnded 4:46
32 of 71
Sig.
strikes
strikes
19 of 58
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:15
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 25Clinch 2Ground 5
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 19Clinch 0Ground 0
Red corner
KatlynCerminaraBorn in Quakertown, Pennsylvania, United States · Fights out of Amity Harbor, New York, United States
VSSettled
The story going in
- Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
- Carries 62 points more striking defence than Stiller.
19-6
Record
6-2
37
Age
−10 yr27
+7″5' 9"
Height
5' 2"
+6″68″
Reach
62″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Amity Harbor, New York, United Statesfights out of
From
Twin Lakes, Wisconsinhometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Katlyn Cerminara
69.3% confident
The fight
Katlyn Cerminara
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
UFC debut
Stiller’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 17 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 10 or more UFC fights win 42% of the time (67 of 158 fights).
Age
Stiller is 10 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 70% of UFC fights (353 of 508 fights).
History leans Stiller on 1 of these; our model picked Cerminara.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Katlyn Cerminara
Round
1
Clock
4:46
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Luke Boutin.
Takedowns
Takedowns
Katlyn Cerminara
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
FightIQ read
Rarely shoots
0.31 takedowns landed per 15 minutes — −1.20 on the field average.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS3
0.31 / 15m−1.20 vs field
ATTEMPTS32
2.07 / 15m−1.66 vs field
ACCURACY3
15%−28pp vs field
SUB ATT37
0.30 / 15m−0.33 vs field
TD DEFENCE31
50%−9pp vs field
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (3.42 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Ranked in Women's Flyweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Katlyn CerminaraMackenzie StillerPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Katlyn Cerminara's implied chance moved down from 82% to 68% (−13.5pp).
This series stops at Oct 17 22:21Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Katlyn Cerminara at 69.3%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 68.5% — our number sat 0.8pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara — sportsbook consensus | 70.7% | 68.9% | 70.8% | 68.9% | −1.8pp |
| Mackenzie Stiller — sportsbook consensus | 29.3% | 29.2% | 31.1% | 31.1% | +1.8pp |
| Katlyn Cerminara — Polymarket | 82.0% | 68.5% | 82.0% | 68.5% | −13.5pp |
| Mackenzie Stiller — Polymarket | 18.0% | 18.0% | 31.5% | 31.5% | +13.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 572 snapshots on file · window Oct 13 22:11–Oct 17 22:11Z · last capture Oct 17, 22:11Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.