Round 1
8 of 19
Sig.
strikes
strikes
5 of 14
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
3:20
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 7Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 3Clinch 1Ground 1
VSSettled
Blue corner
TannerBoser“The Bulldozer”Shaved Bears MMA · Born in Bonnyville, Alberta, Canada · Fights out of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
The story going in
- Has finished 3 of 5 UFC wins.
- 11 UFC bouts deep — 6 more than Diniz.
9-3
Record
23-11-1
35
Age
35
+2″6' 4"
Height
6' 2"
+4″79″
Reach
75″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5
UFC bouts
+611
1/333% of wins
Finishes
+27%3/560% of wins
Santa Fe Team
Gym
Shaved Bears MMA
Curitiba, Brazil
Born in
Bonnyville, Alberta, Canada
Curitiba, Brazil
Fights out of
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Jhonata Diniz
74.1% confidentHIGH
The fight
Tanner Boser
LOSS✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Time away
Diniz’s first UFC fight in 12 months. A fighter coming back after 1 to 2 years away, against an opponent active within the year, wins 41% of the time (377 of 929 fights).
History leans Boser on 1 of these; our model picked Diniz.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 21 sub attempt
6 of 23
Sig.
strikes
strikes
26 of 41
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
3:05
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 6Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 10Clinch 0Ground 16
Round 3Ended 4:26
No significant strikes landed — 3 thrown
0 of 3
Sig.
strikes
strikes
13 of 16
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
3:53
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 10
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Tanner Boser
Round
3
Clock
4:26
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jason Herzog.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Jhonata Diniz
0.00 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.00 / 15m
n/a
ATTEMPTS
n/a
n/a
ACCURACY
n/a
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
70%
TD DEFENCE
69%
Tanner Boser
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.29 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Heavyweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Jhonata DinizTanner BoserPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Jhonata Diniz's implied chance moved down from 71% to 68% (−3.5pp).
Our published call had Jhonata Diniz at 74.1%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 67.5% — our number sat 6.6pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz — sportsbook consensus | 68.9% | 65.1% | 68.9% | 65.1% | −3.8pp |
| Tanner Boser — sportsbook consensus | 31.1% | 31.1% | 34.9% | 34.9% | +3.8pp |
| Jhonata Diniz — Polymarket | 71.0% | 64.5% | 71.0% | 67.5% | −3.5pp |
| Tanner Boser — Polymarket | 29.0% | 29.0% | 35.5% | 32.5% | +3.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,105 snapshots on file · window Oct 10 06:11–Oct 17 23:41Z · last capture Oct 17, 23:41Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.