Round 1
9 of 37
Sig.
strikes
strikes
15 of 25
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 9Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 15Clinch 0Ground 0
Red corner
JoaquinBuckley“New Mansa”Murcielago MMA · Born in St. Louis, Missouri, United States · Fights out of St. Louis, Missouri, United States
VSSettled
Blue corner
MikeMalott“Proper”Team Alpha Male · Born in Burlington, Ontario, Canada · Fights out of Burlington, Ontario, Canada
The story going in
- Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
- Comes in on a 4-fight win streak.
- Has finished 8 of 11 UFC wins.
- Has finished 5 of 7 UFC wins.
21-9
Record
15-2-1
−2 yr32
Age
34
5' 10"
Height
+3″6' 1"
+3″76″
Reach
73″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
+917
UFC bouts
8
+1%8/1173% of wins
Finishes
5/771% of wins
Murcielago MMA
Gym
Team Alpha Male
St. Louis, Missouri, United States
Born in
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
St. Louis, Missouri, United States
Fights out of
Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Mike Malott
54.5% confidentTOSS-UP
The fight
Mike Malott
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Finishers
Both fighters finish: at least two thirds of their UFC wins ended inside the distance. When two finishers meet, 64% of UFC fights end inside the distance (354 of 550 fights). Across every UFC fight it is 53%.
Win streaks
Malott comes in on a 4-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 57% of the time (367 of 639 fights).
Age
Buckley is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,252 of 2,209 fights).
History leans Buckley on 1 of these; our model picked Malott.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 1 KD MalottEnded 2:32
5 of 16
Sig.
strikes
strikes
22 of 25
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:08
Control
1:25
0
Knock-
downs
downs
1
Distance 1Clinch 4Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 6Clinch 15Ground 1
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Mike Malott
Round
2
Clock
2:32
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Joaquin Buckley
1.43 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.63 / 15m
3.18 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
3.26 / 15m
45%
ACCURACY
50%
0.10 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.70 / 15m
70%
TD DEFENCE
57%
Mike Malott
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.59 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Welterweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Joaquin BuckleyMike MalottPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
Mike Malott's implied chance drifted up from 47% to 54% (+6.5pp) over this window.
Our published call had Mike Malott at 54.5%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 53.5% — our number sat 1.0pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley — sportsbook consensus | 42.6% | 42.6% | 46.8% | 46.7% | +4.1pp |
| Mike Malott — sportsbook consensus | 57.4% | 53.2% | 57.4% | 53.3% | −4.1pp |
| Joaquin Buckley — Polymarket | 53.0% | 42.5% | 53.0% | 46.5% | −6.5pp |
| Mike Malott — Polymarket | 47.0% | 47.0% | 57.5% | 53.5% | +6.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,106 snapshots on file · window Oct 10 06:11–Oct 17 23:51Z · last capture Oct 17, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.