Round 1⚡ 1 KD PerezEnded 0:27
10 of 21
Sig.
strikes
strikes
5 of 7
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:04
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 5
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
Blue corner
KyleNelson“The Monster”House of Champions MMA · Born in Huntsville, Ontario, Canada · Fights out of Stoney Creek, Ontario, Canada
The story going in
- Carries 21 points more takedown defence than Nelson.
- Has finished 2 of 5 UFC wins.
- Carries 14 points more striking defence than Perez.
16-2
Record
17-8-1
−8 yr27
Age
35
5' 9"
Height
+2″5' 11"
+1″72″
Reach
71″
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Combate Libre Academy
Gym
House of Champions MMA
Mexico
From
Stoney Creek, Ontario, Canadafights out of
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Cristian Perez
75.4% confident
The fight
Cristian Perez
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
UFC debut
Perez’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 12 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 10 or more UFC fights win 42% of the time (67 of 158 fights).
Age
Perez is 8 years younger. With an age gap of 8 to 9 years, the younger fighter wins 65% of UFC fights (413 of 634 fights).
History leans Nelson on 1 of these; our model picked Perez.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Cristian Perez
Round
1
Clock
0:27
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jason Herzog.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Cristian Perez
2.36 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.18 / 15m
7.87 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
5.13 / 15m
30%
ACCURACY
23%
0.80 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.50 / 15m
87%
TD DEFENCE
66%
Kyle Nelson
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Lightweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Cristian PerezKyle NelsonPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Cristian Perez's implied chance moved down from 76% to 74% (−1.5pp).
Our published call had Cristian Perez at 75.4%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 74.5% — our number sat 0.9pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Perez — sportsbook consensus | 73.5% | 73.5% | 75.7% | 75.1% | +1.6pp |
| Kyle Nelson — sportsbook consensus | 26.5% | 24.3% | 26.5% | 24.9% | −1.6pp |
| Cristian Perez — Polymarket | 76.0% | 74.5% | 76.0% | 74.5% | −1.5pp |
| Kyle Nelson — Polymarket | 24.0% | 24.0% | 25.5% | 25.5% | +1.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 605 snapshots on file · window Oct 13 17:41–Oct 17 23:51Z · last capture Oct 17, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.