Round 11 sub attempt
3 of 21
Sig.
strikes
strikes
9 of 26
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
3 of 3
0:00
Control
3:36
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 3Ground 2
VSSettled
The story going in
- Lands 4.4 more significant strikes a minute than Cuamba.
- Averages 1.2 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Jourdain.
9-4
Record
11-4
29
Age
−2 yr27
5' 9"
Height
5' 9"
69″
Reach
+2″71″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Louis Jourdain
61.6% confident
The fight
Timmy Cuamba
LOSS✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
UFC debut
Jourdain’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 5 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 4 to 9 UFC fights win 41% of the time (215 of 525 fights).
History leans Cuamba on 1 of these; our model picked Jourdain.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 21 sub attemptEnded 2:48
6 of 15
Sig.
strikes
strikes
13 of 24
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
1:11
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 6Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 6
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Timmy Cuamba
Round
2
Clock
2:48
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Andy Social.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Louis Jourdain
0.00 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.18 / 15m
n/a
ATTEMPTS
3.81 / 15m
n/a
ACCURACY
31%
1.40 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
66%
TD DEFENCE
71%
Timmy Cuamba
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Bantamweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Louis JourdainTimmy CuambaPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Louis Jourdain's implied chance moved down from 59% to 58% (−0.5pp).
Our published call had Louis Jourdain at 61.6%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 58.5% — our number sat 3.1pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Jourdain — sportsbook consensus | 59.1% | 59.1% | 64.9% | 60.5% | +1.3pp |
| Timmy Cuamba — sportsbook consensus | 40.9% | 35.1% | 40.9% | 39.5% | −1.3pp |
| Louis Jourdain — Polymarket | 59.0% | 58.0% | 65.0% | 58.5% | −0.5pp |
| Timmy Cuamba — Polymarket | 41.0% | 35.0% | 42.0% | 41.5% | +0.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,106 snapshots on file · window Oct 10 06:11–Oct 17 23:51Z · last capture Oct 17, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.